Spot gold pushed into the $4,600 area after regaining the $4,500–$4,550 band and printing about $4,604 on Friday, the highest level since 15 May, leaving the metal on track for a third straight weekly advance. The daily chart shows a base around $4,050–$4,100 followed by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, with price reclaiming $4,225, breaking $4,390 and accelerating through $4,500. Immediate resistance is cited at $4,600–$4,605, with a move above $4,605 pointing to $4,635 and then $4,670–$4,720, while the next upside zone is framed at $4,720–$4,770 and $4,721.73 is referenced as a historical level. Support is mapped at $4,570–$4,575, then $4,540–$4,550 and $4,500–$4,510, with deeper layers at $4,450–$4,480 and $4,390–$4,400.
The rally has been linked to a softer US dollar, shifting US monetary-policy expectations and lower Treasury yields after the US Treasury expanded long-duration debt buybacks; the dollar was near a three-month low on 21 August, while the 10-year yield was around 4.69%. Fiscal and debt sustainability concerns are also described as a demand channel alongside central-bank and ETF interest. The World Gold Council’s 2026 central-bank survey reported 89% of reserve managers expect global official gold holdings to rise over the next 12 months, and 45% expect their own to increase, while Chinese gold ETF holdings rose by about 5 tonnes in July with inflows continuing into August. Gold was up about 4.2% on the week and moved above its 200-day moving average near $4,500, with risks flagged around potential reversals in yields, the dollar and Federal Reserve guidance, plus a possible pullback if price weakens below about $4,450 or, more materially, below $4,390.
Derivative Trading Strategies and Market Structure
We suggest that derivative traders prepare for a sustained bullish phase as gold targets the $4,600 level. Because the market has established a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, we should focus on buying dips rather than selling rallies. Our immediate attention is on the crucial $4,500 to $4,550 zone, which has transitioned from a tough resistance level into our primary support floor.
For short-term options and futures strategies, we recommend looking for entry points during shallow pullbacks toward the $4,570 to $4,575 range. A deeper, high-quality buying opportunity exists if the price retraces to the $4,540 to $4,550 area. We should keep risk management tight, as a sustained daily close below $4,500 would invalidate this breakout and suggest a deeper correction toward $4,450.
If gold successfully clears the immediate $4,605 barrier, derivative traders should target upside extensions at $4,635 and $4,670. Beyond that, our medium-term target stretches toward the major historical resistance zone between $4,720 and $4,750. This bullish expansion is backed by solid market structure shifting from accumulation to active expansion.
Macro Drivers and Institutional Demand
This upward momentum is heavily supported by a weaker US dollar and dropping Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.69% today. We must also consider the wider economic picture, where US national debt has surged past $35 trillion, fueling deep concerns over fiscal sustainability. This environment naturally drives investors to use gold as a crucial hedge against currency debasement.
Furthermore, robust institutional backing continues to provide a very strong safety net for the metal. Historical data shows that global central banks have consistently purchased over 1,000 tonnes of gold annually in recent years, a powerful trend that remains highly active in 2026. With the World Gold Council reporting that 89% of reserve managers expect global gold reserves to keep rising, we believe the long-term floor for gold remains incredibly secure.
