The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell close to 260 points to below 53,500, down about half a per cent, as the 60-day negotiating window tied to the Strait of Hormuz lapsed without a replacement plan. For the second straight session, the day’s high was set at the open, while the index slipped to the 53,400 area late on as the long end of the US Treasury curve reached a 19-year high. Oil rose around 3%, pushing WTI above $83.00 and Brent above $88.00, while Strait traffic remained depressed: three vessels crossed on Sunday versus a five-day average of 12 and roughly 130 a day before the war.
US Treasury Yields And Economic Data
In rates, the 30-year yield climbed to 5.31%, up more than four basis points and the highest since June 2007; the 10-year topped 4.72% and the two-year was a basis point firmer. Data included the Empire State manufacturing survey at 20.6 versus an 11 consensus and 15.6 in July, with unfilled orders up ten points to 15.5 as prices paid rose and prices received fell. The week ahead brings FOMC minutes from the July 29 meeting at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, PMIs on Friday (manufacturing 53.8 from 53.9; services 54 from 54.6), plus permits 1.37m versus 1.374m and starts 1.35m from 1.427m at 12:30 GMT Tuesday, industrial production 0.3% from 0.1% at 13:15, pending sales 0.2% from -5.4% at 14:00, claims 212K versus 209K and the Philadelphia Fed survey 25 from 41.4 on Thursday; Home Depot reports Tuesday and Walmart Thursday.
Technical Outlook For The Dow And Key Levels
Technical levels cited resistance at 53,500, then 53,800, 53,900 and 54,100, with the record just short of 54,750; support at 53,400, then 53,200 and 53,000, with the 50-day EMA near 52,400, alongside a daily range near 380 points versus 200 previously and a Stoch RSI near 76, with invalidation on a close back above 53,800.
