Goldman Sachs estimates China bought more than 48 tonnes of gold in May through the London over-the-counter market, even though the People’s Bank of China reported only a 10-tonne rise in reserves. That implies May buying ran at 4.8 times the official figure. On disclosed data, the central bank has added 40 tonnes in 2026, including 15 tonnes in June, its biggest reported monthly increase in over two years, while Goldman’s nowcast points to 67 tonnes a month on a three-month seasonally adjusted average through May.
Using a 2.0 times multiplier, Goldman puts China’s 2026 accumulation closer to 80 tonnes, whereas applying the May ratio would lift that estimate to 192 tonnes. Separate analysis for 2024 put covert purchases at 570 tonnes versus a reported 41-tonne increase, and suggested monetary gold holdings above 5,000 tonnes, more than twice the public number. Historical disclosure in mid-2015 showed a 604-tonne jump, taking reserves from 1,054 tonnes to 1,658 tonnes, alongside claims that several thousand tonnes sit off-book via the State Administration for Foreign Exchange. Goldman’s framework also includes a $4,900 per troy ounce end-2026 forecast.
Derivative Strategies for an Anticipated Gold Breakout
We believe derivative traders should aggressively position themselves for a major gold breakout in the coming weeks by accumulating long call options. With major financial institutions forecasting gold to reach $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of December 2026, the options market is currently mispricing the true scale of global demand. This ambitious target means short-term market dips present highly lucrative entry points for leveraged derivative plays.
The Influence of Undisclosed Central Bank Accumulation
This bullish outlook is heavily supported by massive, undisclosed central bank accumulation that the broader market is completely ignoring. While official reports show China added only 40 tonnes of gold to its reserves in the first half of 2026, secret over-the-counter purchases suggest the real number is closer to 192 tonnes. This mirrors recent historical data from the World Gold Council, which tracked central banks buying more than 1,030 tonnes annually as they aggressively diversify away from the US dollar.
To capitalize on this hidden demand, we recommend traders utilize bull call spreads expiring in late 2026 to capture the upward momentum while limiting premium decay. Any short-term price drops triggered by hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric should be treated as a green light to buy calls on the cheap. As this secret Asian buying continues to build an unbreakable price floor, the path of least resistance for bullion is aggressively upward.
