EUR/JPY edged up near 186.20 on Wednesday, with the yen staying under pressure close to multi-decade lows while the euro held steady ahead of the European Central Bank decision. The ECB is expected to keep the Main Refinancing Operations Rate at 2.40% and the Deposit Facility Rate at 2.25%, after lifting its three key rates by 25 basis points in June. Eurozone Consumer Confidence is projected to improve to -16.8 in July from -17.7, which would sit alongside the policy message as the next near-term driver for the single currency.
Eurozone Policy and Confidence Outlook
The ECB is expected to keep the Main Refinancing Operations Rate at 2.40% and the Deposit Facility Rate at 2.25%, after lifting its three key rates by 25 basis points in June. Eurozone Consumer Confidence is projected to improve to -16.8 in July from -17.7, which would sit alongside the policy message as the next near-term driver for the single currency.
Japanese Yen and Key Technical Levels
Japan’s focus shifts to Friday’s June CPI release. Core CPI excluding fresh food is forecast to rise to 1.6% year-on-year from 1.4%, while the prior headline inflation reading was 1.5% and CPI excluding food and energy came in at 1.8%. On the 4-hour chart, the pair was at 186.17, holding above the 20-period SMA at 185.83 and the 100-period SMA at 185.32, with nearby levels clustered between 185.91 and 186.07; RSI was 63. Resistance sits at 186.19, while support is seen at 186.07–186.04, then 185.91, 185.83, 185.32 and lower levels at 184.06, 183.82 and 183.67.
