Commerzbank expects US inflation to ease as oil and petrol prices fall, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy further. The bank’s baseline view is that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, even as market pricing points to additional tightening, and it sees inflation readings in June coming in below May.
On the policy path, Commerzbank’s forecast assumes no rate increases, while cuts are pencilled in from summer 2027. It also anticipates renewed downside pressure on the US dollar once the conflict with Iran ends and easing begins, and it adds that the currency looks overvalued on a purchasing power parity basis.
Disconnect Between Market Expectations And Fed Policy
Given that the market is still pricing in potential rate hikes, we see an opportunity in the coming weeks. Current fed funds futures data suggests a greater than 60% probability of another hike by September 2026, a view we believe is mistaken. This disconnect between market pricing and the likely reality of a Federal Reserve on hold is where we should focus our attention.
The primary reason for our view is the recent drop in energy prices, which will directly impact the next inflation report. Crude oil has fallen from over $90 a barrel in May to trade near $82 today, and the latest EIA report showed a surprise build in inventories. This should translate into a lower headline Consumer Price Index for June, reducing any pressure on the Fed to tighten policy further.
Therefore, we are looking at interest rate derivatives that would profit from the Fed staying put. This involves considering positions that bet against the rate hikes currently priced into the September and December contracts. Options on SOFR futures that expire in late summer could provide a cost-effective way to position for this outcome.
Implications For The US Dollar
We also anticipate the US Dollar will come under pressure as the market reprices Fed expectations downward. The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 108, a level that has historically been difficult to sustain without continued hawkish policy. We should consider buying put options on the DXY or call options on currency pairs like the EUR/USD.
This dollar weakness is further supported by fundamentals, as purchasing power parity models show the dollar is significantly overvalued against its major trading partners. Historically, when a hawkish Fed cycle ends unexpectedly, an overvalued dollar tends to correct quickly and sharply. We expect this pattern to repeat once the market realizes no more hikes are coming.
