Australia’s CFTC data showed AUD non-commercial net positions rose to $67.8K from $52.6K. This indicates an increase of $15.2K compared with the previous reading.
We are seeing a notable increase in bullish bets on the Australian dollar among speculative traders. The latest data shows net long positions have climbed to 67,800 contracts, a significant rise from 52,600 contracts the week prior. This marks a growing belief that the currency is poised for further gains.
Drivers Behind The Shift
This shift in sentiment is likely tied to the strong February 2026 manufacturing data from China, which has pushed iron ore prices up by over 8% in the last month. Since commodities are a major driver for the Australian economy, this strength provides a solid fundamental reason for the AUD’s recent performance. We believe traders are positioning for this trend to continue.
Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently signaled a pause on rate cuts, while markets increasingly expect the US Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish tone. This monetary policy divergence makes holding the Australian dollar more attractive due to its potential yield advantage. This is a classic setup that we have seen favor the currency in past cycles.
Given this growing momentum, derivative traders should consider strategies that profit from a rising AUD/USD exchange rate. Buying call options or implementing bull call spreads could be effective ways to gain upside exposure over the coming weeks. We are looking at the 0.6950 level, a key resistance zone from late 2025, as a potential near-term target.
However, we must be cautious when positioning becomes this crowded. We saw a similar build-up of bullish sentiment in the first quarter of 2025 right before a sharp pullback on revised global growth forecasts. It is therefore wise to manage risk carefully, perhaps by using protective put options or defined stop-losses on any long positions.
