EUR/USD opened lower at the start of the week, with demand for safer assets lifting the US dollar amid the US-Iran conflict. The pair later steadied above the mid-1.1700s in the Asian session, but remained under pressure.
Price action points to a break below the lower edge of a trading range that has held for over a week, bringing support near 1.1770 into focus. The pair has also struggled around the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has shifted from support to resistance.
Technical Momentum And Key Levels
Momentum signals have weakened, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling to 39. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (12, 26, 9) has moved back towards the zero line, and the MACD line is slightly negative.
Resistance is seen at 1.1800, then at 1.1828, which aligns with the 100-period SMA. A sustained move above 1.1828 could allow a push towards 1.1860.
Support sits at 1.1750, then 1.1720, with 1.1680 as the next downside level if selling continues. The technical section was produced with help from an AI tool.
We remember the breakdown in 2025 when the flight to safety during the US-Iran conflict pushed the dollar higher. That period confirmed how geopolitical stress can rapidly shift currency dynamics. The key support level near 1.1770 gave way, providing a clear signal for bearish sentiment that lasted for weeks.
Derivatives And Risk Positioning
Looking at the situation today on March 2, 2026, we see some worrying similarities for the Euro. The latest US Non-Farm Payrolls report for February 2026 showed a robust addition of 295,000 jobs, crushing expectations and signaling continued economic strength. Meanwhile, the most recent Eurozone inflation data showed a dip to 2.4%, raising expectations that the European Central Bank may cut rates before the US Federal Reserve.
For derivative traders, this divergence suggests buying EUR/USD put options could be a prudent strategy. This allows for profiting from a potential downturn while strictly limiting the maximum loss to the premium paid for the option. We saw last year how quickly the pair fell once key technical levels were breached, and puts offer a defined-risk way to position for a repeat.
Implied volatility is also a key factor to watch in the coming weeks. We recall how volatility spiked in 2025, increasing option premiums across the board. The Cboe EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ) has risen 8% over the past month, suggesting the market is starting to price in larger price swings again.
Considering this, traders might look at puts with strike prices below the 1.1750 mark. A decisive break below this level, which served as initial support during the 2025 drop, could trigger a faster move lower. The old targets of 1.1720 and 1.1680 are now back in focus as potential objectives.
