GBP/USD fell by 0.17% on Thursday after US jobs data outweighed UK GDP figures released during the European session. The pair traded at 1.3534 after earlier rising to just below 1.36, while expectations of a US–Iran peace deal supported risk appetite.
In European trading on Thursday, GBP/USD was about 0.1% lower near 1.3545 and struggled to break above 1.3600, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The US Dollar firmed after recovering early losses, even as market sentiment stayed risk-on.
Market Reaction And Key Levels
On Wednesday, GBP/USD stalled and held around 1.3570 as optimism over renewed US–Iran talks cooled. US equities extended gains, and the US Dollar appeared to stabilise after touching a six-week low.
We remember how the pound struggled to break the 1.3600 barrier back in 2025, where a strong US jobs report was enough to halt any rally despite a positive mood. That dynamic of a resilient dollar overpowering other factors has become a more dominant theme since then. The market is now trading significantly lower, showing that the resistance we saw last year was a critical turning point.
The present situation in April 2026 echoes that period, as the most recent US Non-Farm Payrolls report for March added a solid 255,000 jobs, comfortably beating expectations. This strong labor market data has cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will not be cutting interest rates any time soon. As a result, the dollar continues to attract capital, putting a ceiling on any potential GBP/USD gains.
Meanwhile, the UK’s own economic picture is less clear, with March 2026 inflation data showing consumer prices remain sticky at 3.1%, keeping pressure on the Bank of England. However, this is offset by sluggish Q1 growth forecasts, creating a conflict for policymakers and uncertainty for the pound. This divergence in economic momentum between a robust US and a hesitating UK continues to favor the dollar.
Derivative Trading Approach
For the coming weeks, derivative traders should consider strategies that position for limited upside in GBP/USD. Buying put options with a strike price below the current 1.2800 support could offer protection against another leg down driven by US data. Selling out-of-the-money call options above the 1.2950 resistance level may also be a viable strategy to collect premium from the expected range-bound movement.
