US President Donald Trump spoke to Agence France-Presse (AFP) by phone after a ceasefire was announced between the United States and Iran. He described the truce with Iran as a “total and complete victory”.
He said the issue of Uranium would be “perfectly taken care of” or he would not have agreed to the settlement. He also said “One hundred percent. No question about it.”
Ceasefire Comments And Initial Market Reaction
When asked if Beijing had been involved in pressuring Tehran to negotiate, he said he heard “yes”. The report said the comments did not have any material impact on markets.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) was consolidating near 99.00. WTI was down roughly 11% on the day, around $90, while gold was ranging near $4,800.
With the US-Iran ceasefire announced, the immediate geopolitical risk premium that has been inflating asset prices is evaporating. The 11% drop in WTI to around $90 is a direct result of this, as fears of a supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz recede. For derivative traders, this means that the extreme implied volatility we saw in energy markets over the past quarter will likely collapse in the coming weeks.
We saw a similar pattern of volatility spikes followed by rapid declines during the market turbulence of 2022 and 2024. Therefore, selling volatility now appears to be the most prudent strategy rather than making a directional bet. We are looking to sell out-of-the-money call spreads on crude oil futures, as a return to prices above $95 seems unlikely without a new catalyst.
Gold Inflation Support And Hedging Approach
The situation with gold is more complex, as its high price near $4,800 is not just about war fears. Lingering inflation, which the latest data from March 2026 pegged at a stubborn 4.1% in the United States, remains the primary support for the metal. The removal of the conflict premium will weigh on gold, but the underlying inflation hedge demand is strong.
Given this, we are not looking to short gold, but to hedge existing long positions. This is a good time to use options to construct collar strategies, which involves buying protective puts and selling out-of-the-money calls to finance them. This will safeguard gains against a further easing of geopolitical tensions while retaining exposure to the inflation narrative.
The US Dollar Index, consolidating near 99.00, is showing signs of weakening as the flight-to-safety trade unwinds. We’ve seen the dollar give back its gains after previous risk events faded, such as during the banking sector concerns back in 2025. This de-escalation should benefit currencies of nations with hawkish central banks.
Therefore, we believe the path of least resistance for the dollar is lower in the near term. We are positioning for this by purchasing call options on Euro futures. The European Central Bank has maintained a more aggressive inflation-fighting stance this year, which should support the single currency as global risk appetite returns.
