Australia’s CFTC data shows AUD non-commercial net positions at 81.5K. The prior reading was 70.9K.
We’re seeing a notable increase in bullish bets on the Australian dollar, with net long positions from speculators rising to 81.5K contracts from 70.9K. This shows that large market participants are increasingly confident the Aussie is headed higher. This sentiment is a shift from the more cautious positioning we saw for parts of last year.
Speculative Positioning Turns More Bullish
This growing optimism is likely fueled by recent fundamental news. We’ve seen iron ore prices stabilize and climb back above $120 per tonne in late March 2026, supported by renewed demand signals. The Reserve Bank of Australia also struck a surprisingly hawkish tone at its last meeting on March 31, hinting that persistent inflation could keep rate hikes on the table.
Australia’s own economy is showing resilience, with the latest jobs report from March revealing unemployment unexpectedly fell to 3.7%. This strength at home contrasts with recent U.S. inflation data, which came in slightly softer than anticipated, leading some to believe the Federal Reserve may pause its own tightening. Looking back, this is a stark reversal from the sentiment in mid-2025 when global slowdown fears had many betting against the AUD.
Given this backdrop, traders should consider positioning for further upside in the AUD over the next few weeks. Buying call options on AUD/USD futures could be a straightforward way to capitalize on potential gains while keeping risk defined. Alternatively, constructing bull put spreads would allow traders to collect a premium, based on the belief that the AUD will not fall below a certain level.
