Australia CFTC data shows AUD non-commercial net positions at 81.5K. The prior reading was 70.9K.
We are seeing a notable increase in bullish bets on the Australian dollar, with net long positions from speculative traders climbing to $81.5K. This is up from $70.9K in the prior period, indicating a strengthening conviction in the currency’s upward potential. This growing momentum suggests traders should be cautious about holding significant short positions against the AUD in the coming weeks.
Drivers Behind The Bullish Shift
This sentiment is underpinned by recent economic data, with China’s industrial production numbers for March 2026 beating forecasts and supporting demand for Australian commodities like iron ore, which has held firm above $120 per tonne. The Reserve Bank of Australia has also maintained a hawkish tone, with the market anticipating that stubborn inflation, which ended 2025 at 3.9%, could force another rate hike. These factors are providing a solid foundation for the currency.
Looking back, this is a significant shift from the sentiment we observed for parts of 2025, when concerns over global growth pushed the AUD/USD below the 0.6500 level. Back then, speculative positioning was much more neutral as traders waited for clarity on China’s recovery. The current build-up in long positions suggests that period of uncertainty has passed.
Adding to the bullish case is the dynamic with the US dollar, as the Federal Reserve has signaled a potential end to its tightening cycle. Market pricing now suggests a rate cut could be on the table in the third quarter of 2026. This policy divergence between a hawkish RBA and a potentially dovish Fed favors continued AUD strength.
