Gold fell back from weekly highs near $4,800 but stayed above earlier highs around $4,600. It was trading at $4,665, keeping the rising channel from the March 23 low in place ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data due on Friday.
The US Dollar’s rise seen on Thursday has eased, with low trading volumes as many markets are shut for the Good Friday bank holiday. The NFP report is forecast to show a 60K increase in March employment, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.4%.
Technical Picture And Key Levels
XAU/USD remains within a short-term upward channel, while indicators give mixed readings. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index is above 50, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence has moved down from its latest peak.
Support sits near $4,600, where the channel base meets late March highs around $4,580. A break below this area could shift focus to the March 26 low near $4,350 and the March 23 low near $4,100.
Resistance is at $4,800, with another level just above $5,00. The technical analysis in the report was produced with help from an AI tool.
We are seeing a similar setup to what we experienced around this time in 2025, with gold consolidating in an upward channel ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Last year, we were watching the precious metal hold the $4,600 level before the jobs data was released. The market is once again paused, waiting for a catalyst that will either confirm the bullish trend or trigger a reversal.
Options Positioning Into Nfp
The current economic backdrop adds significant tension, as the labor market has shown surprising resilience. For instance, recent reports showed job growth far exceeding expectations, with over 300,000 positions added last month, keeping the unemployment rate below 4%. This strength should theoretically weigh on gold, yet the metal has continued its ascent, driven by persistent central bank demand and ongoing geopolitical risks.
For traders anticipating the bullish trend to continue, buying call options with a strike price near the recent high of $4,800 presents a clear strategy. This approach offers a leveraged bet on a breakout towards the $5,000 psychological level, a key area we also identified as a target last year. Using options provides a defined risk profile, which is crucial given the potential for a sharp, negative reaction to a strong jobs number.
Conversely, those who believe the strong US economy will finally halt gold’s rally could consider buying put options. A decisive break below the channel’s support around $4,600 would be the trigger for this trade, targeting lower levels like $4,350 that acted as support in March of 2025. This strategy can also serve as an effective hedge for anyone holding substantial long positions through the event risk.
We must also consider the elevated implied volatility that always precedes a major data release like the NFP report. This makes buying options more expensive, meaning traders could look at selling credit spreads to capitalize on the expected volatility crush after the news is out. For example, selling a bearish call spread above $4,800 allows a trader to profit if gold stays flat or moves down, collecting premium from the heightened market uncertainty.
