Gold (XAU/USD) traded lower near $4,675 in early Asian hours on Friday. Trading was muted due to Good Friday.
US President Donald Trump said in a televised White House speech on Thursday that his “objectives are nearing completion” in Iran. He also said the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” for the next two to three weeks.
Oil Rates And Gold Pressure
The comments lifted crude oil prices and reduced expectations of US interest rate cuts. Gold does not pay interest, so it can be less attractive when rates are high.
Markets were also watching US March jobs data due on Friday. Forecasts expect Nonfarm Payrolls of 60,000 in March, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.4%.
We are seeing gold on the defensive near $4,675 this morning. Escalating tensions are pushing WTI crude oil above $115, yet gold isn’t acting as a typical safe haven. The reason is the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield, which is holding firm at 4.85%, making interest-bearing assets more attractive.
This feels a lot like what we saw back in 2025 during the Iran conflict flare-up. Geopolitical headlines caused an initial knee-jerk reaction, but the market quickly shifted its focus to how spiking energy prices would impact the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. That playbook suggests being cautious about chasing gold higher on news of conflict alone.
Options Strategies For A Big Move
For derivative traders, this uncertainty suggests looking at options strategies that benefit from a large price move, regardless of direction. With the VIX, a measure of expected market volatility, ticking up to 22.5, strategies like long straddles or strangles on gold futures could be useful. This allows us to position for a breakout without having to guess if it will be up or down.
The immediate focus is on the March Nonfarm Payrolls report due out later today. Consensus expectations are for 180,000 jobs added, and any significant deviation will likely dictate the U.S. dollar’s next move. A much weaker number could undermine the dollar and give gold a temporary lift, while a strong report would reinforce the high-rate narrative.
