The Nifty 50 fell from 25,800 to the 25,400 area, with price moving towards 25,550 and then reaching a low of 25,388. The move was described as a drop of more than 400 points.
The video focuses on an “Alternate Scenario” based on Elliott Wave analysis and reviews how the index moved into the 25,550 zone. It then assesses whether the decline offers a potential buying setup or whether the market could face a deeper correction.
Alternate Scenario Key Levels
It also includes a technical review of Nifty, Bank Nifty, Indigo, Bitcoin, MCX Silver, and Comex Gold. The content is presented by Abhishek H. Singh, a financial analyst with over 10 years of experience in Elliott Wave Theory.
We have just witnessed the Nifty fall over 400 points, moving from the 25,800s to a low near 25,388. While this sparked widespread panic, for us it was a predicted alternate scenario, bringing the index right into a key support zone. The immediate question is whether this is a valuable buying opportunity or the beginning of a much deeper slide.
For derivative traders, the most telling sign of this nervousness is the India VIX, which has surged over 25% in the last week to trade near 17.5. This spike from the comfortable sub-14 levels of January 2026 means option premiums are now significantly higher. This makes selling options more profitable but also riskier if volatility continues to climb.
Looking at institutional flows, foreign investors have been net sellers, pulling out approximately ₹15,000 crore from Indian equities over the last ten trading sessions. This selling pressure has been a primary driver of the recent fall. However, domestic institutions have absorbed much of this selling, providing a cushion around the 25,400-25,500 levels.
Derivatives Flows And Risk Signals
The derivatives data shows the Nifty’s Put-Call Ratio has dipped to 0.80, suggesting bearish sentiment is becoming stretched and the market may be oversold in the short term. We are seeing a massive build-up in open interest for 25,500 strike puts, which should now act as a critical support level for the upcoming weekly expiry. On the upside, the 26,000 strike has the highest concentration of call writers, forming a formidable ceiling.
Looking back to 2025, we saw a similar sharp pullback of around 3% in August before the market consolidated and resumed its upward trend towards the end of the year. Historically, such quick corrections during a bull market have often presented buying opportunities. The key difference now is the heightened concern over global inflation figures, particularly from the United States.
This weakness is not isolated, as the Bank Nifty has also broken below its crucial 56,000 support level, contributing heavily to the Nifty’s decline. Amidst this equity turmoil, safe-haven assets like Gold and Silver have seen renewed interest. Comex Gold is pushing back towards $2,100 an ounce as traders hedge against the uncertainty.
