Canada’s imports were $66.93 billion in December. This compared with $66.14 billion in the previous period.
The rise in December imports to $66.93 billion indicates robust domestic demand heading into the new year. This strength suggests the Canadian economy is more resilient than many had anticipated, which could influence the Bank of Canada’s thinking. For us, this challenges the narrative of a rapidly cooling economy that dominated the second half of 2025.
Given this, we should consider trades that benefit from a stronger Canadian dollar. The recent stability of the USD/CAD exchange rate around 1.34 may not last if this economic vigor continues, especially as the latest jobs report for January 2026 showed unemployment holding steady at a low 5.1%. Traders could look at buying call options on the CAD or selling out-of-the-money puts on the USD/CAD pair in anticipation of a downward move.
This data also shifts the landscape for interest rate derivatives. The market had been pricing in potential rate cuts by the Bank of Canada for the summer of 2026, but persistent economic strength makes that less certain. We could position for higher-for-longer rates by exploring options on CORRA futures that profit if the central bank holds off on easing policy.
On the equity side, this suggests continued health for Canadian consumer-focused companies. Looking back at the cautious earnings guidance many retailers issued in late 2025, this import data may signal an upcoming period of positive surprises. Call options on the S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Discretionary Index or specific large-cap retail names could be an effective way to gain exposure to this trend.
