Silver traded near $77.00 on Monday, posting small losses and staying close to last week’s low around $74.50. Price action has been choppy for weeks, with the downward trend from late January highs still in place.
Precious metals did not gain support from a weaker US Dollar, and trading was quiet. Volumes were lower as many Asian markets were shut for Lunar New Year, and US markets were also closed for President’s Day.
Technical Picture On The Four Hour Chart
In the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD was at $77.09 and below the falling 50-period SMA, which sits near $80.00. The MACD histogram stayed negative, while RSI was 43.
Support is near $74.40, with the next level around the 6 February low near $64.00. Resistance is around $80.00, then near $86.30, with further resistance above $92.00 from 4 February highs.
Silver prices can be affected by the US Dollar, interest rates, demand for safe assets, mining supply, and recycling. Industrial use in electronics and solar, plus economic conditions in the US, China and India, can also move prices, and silver often tracks gold.
Looking back to this time in 2025, we saw a similar bearish setup where silver struggled below $80.00 even as the US Dollar showed weakness. Today, on February 16, 2026, silver is again capped, now trading in a tight range around $68.00 and failing to gather any upward momentum. This persistent inability to rally suggests that sellers remain in control for the near term.
Macro And Positioning Signals
The current economic data further supports a cautious stance, with the latest January 2026 inflation figures coming in higher than expected at 3.4%, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s commitment to keep interest rates elevated. This environment hurts non-yielding assets like silver. Additionally, recent reports show that silver ETF holdings have decreased by over 5 million ounces since the start of the year, indicating waning investor appetite.
For derivative traders, this points toward strategies that benefit from range-bound trading or further declines in the coming weeks. We believe buying puts with a strike price near $64.00, which was a significant support level in early 2025, could be a prudent way to position for a potential breakdown. The elevated open interest on these specific contracts suggests other market participants are anticipating a similar move.
It is also important to note silver’s underperformance relative to gold, a theme that has become more pronounced in early 2026. The Gold/Silver ratio has expanded to over 92:1, its highest level in over a year, signaling that traders are favoring gold’s safe-haven appeal over silver’s industrial properties amid slowing global manufacturing data. This widening ratio historically precedes periods of further weakness for silver.
