Russia’s central bank reserves fell to $797.5bn, down from $826.8bn.
This is a decrease of $29.3bn compared with the previous level.
We are seeing a significant drawdown in Russia’s foreign reserves, a drop of over $29 billion. This suggests the central bank is actively selling dollars to prevent the ruble from weakening too quickly. As a result, we should prepare for increased volatility in the USD/RUB exchange rate in the coming weeks.
This pressure is likely linked to softer energy markets, with Brent crude oil recently falling to near $75 a barrel, down from over $90 in the middle of last year, 2025. Lower oil and gas revenues directly impact the flow of foreign currency into Russia, forcing the government to dip into its savings. We’ve seen this pattern before, where weak commodity prices in 2014 and 2020 led to similar pressures on the country’s finances.
For traders, this creates an opportunity to position for further ruble weakness or at least continued choppiness. We should be looking at buying USD/RUB call options or outright RUB put options to profit from a potential slide in the currency’s value. The latest data shows the USD/RUB pair has already tested the 115 level this month, a sharp rise from the average of 95 we saw throughout much of 2025.
This decline in financial firepower is not just a currency story; it’s a signal of broader geopolitical risk. A financially stressed state can be less predictable, which is likely contributing to the VIX index holding firm above 20, a notable increase from the calmer markets we saw last year. We should consider positions in derivatives tied to global volatility indexes as a hedge against any sudden moves on the world stage.
