Greece’s Harmonised Consumer Price Index (CPIH) year-on-year rate was 2.9% in January.
This was unchanged from the previous reading.
Inflation Proving Stubborn
With Greek inflation holding steady at 2.9%, we see this as a sign that price pressures in the Eurozone are proving stubborn. This figure, while not alarming, is still significantly above the European Central Bank’s 2% target. This stickiness complicates the path forward for monetary policy.
This data point reinforces the trend we are seeing across the bloc, as the latest Eurostat flash estimate put overall Eurozone inflation at 2.5% for January 2026. This is a notable shift from the consistent disinflationary trend we witnessed through most of 2025. The upcoming ECB meeting in early March is now less likely to produce a dovish pivot.
For traders of interest rate derivatives, this means bets on a spring rate cut should be reconsidered. We believe the market will now have to price out the probability of an April cut and push expectations further into the summer. This suggests positioning for short-term rates to remain where they are for longer.
In the equity options market, especially for the Athens Stock Exchange, this environment suggests a cap on near-term gains. Persistent inflation keeps borrowing costs elevated, which can weigh on corporate earnings and investor sentiment. We could see the index remain range-bound, making strategies that benefit from sideways movement more appealing.
Looking back, this situation is quite different from the rapid inflation declines we tracked in 2025, which fueled a significant market rally. That easy descent now appears to be over, and we are entering a more challenging final phase of getting inflation back to target. Traders should adjust for a period of less certain policy direction.
