USD/CHF has been falling since the late November 2025 peak near 0.8102, with lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. Price remains below the 50-day EMA at 0.7873 and the 200-day EMA at 0.8068.
The pair reached 0.7605 in late January, then rebounded towards 0.7800 in early February before turning lower again. The move down from about 0.7950 has made that area resistance, with support still centred near 0.7600.
Key Short Term Price Action
On 10 February, USD/CHF dipped to 0.7629 and later closed near 0.7665. Price tested and rejected 0.7650, a level that has acted as a pivot since late January.
The Stochastic Oscillator (14, 5, 5) is at 30.56/34.56, just above oversold, with no clear bullish crossover. A break below 0.7600 would point to 0.7382, based on a measured move from the wider decline starting at the 2022 highs.
Resistance levels include 0.7790 and the 50-day EMA near 0.7873. Swiss CPI data due on 13 February may increase volatility, and SNB monitoring includes possible foreign exchange intervention to limit Franc strength.
We remember how last year, around this time in February 2025, the market was heavily bearish on USD/CHF as it tested the 0.7600 support level. The downtrend was well-established, with selling pressure consistently overwhelming any minor bounces. That structure pointed towards further weakness in the months ahead.
Shift In Market Regime
That expected breakdown below 0.7600 did happen, with the pair finding a major bottom near the 0.7382 target by July 2025. This move was fueled by the Federal Reserve signaling a pause in its tightening cycle as US Core PCE inflation fell to 2.8% in the second quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank remained hawkish to combat stubbornly high domestic service prices.
Now, the pair has spent the last six months forming a solid base and is trading near 0.7720, sitting just above its 50-day moving average which is starting to curl upwards. The long-term momentum has clearly shifted from bearish to neutral, creating a new environment for traders. We see the market absorbing any dips below 0.7650, which is a significant change from the selling we saw last year.
For those anticipating a continued, slow recovery towards the 0.7900 level, buying May 2026 call options with a 0.7800 strike looks attractive. Implied volatility for the pair has fallen to multi-year lows, making it relatively cheap to purchase options with significant time value. This strategy offers defined risk with the potential for high rewards if the US dollar regains some ground.
A more conservative strategy for the coming weeks would be to sell out-of-the-money put credit spreads. Selling a March 2026 0.7550 put while buying a 0.7450 put for protection would generate income from time decay. This position benefits as long as the significant low from mid-2025 continues to hold as a floor.
The recent January 2026 US jobs report showed a slight cooling, with non-farm payrolls coming in at 165,000 against an expected 180,000. This data keeps the possibility of a mid-year Fed rate cut on the table, which could cap any major USD/CHF rally. Therefore, traders should watch the 0.7870 resistance zone, which aligns with the 200-day moving average, as a potential profit-taking level.
