Dow futures remain above the 4-hour pivot of 48,852 for nine sessions, keeping a stable structure. Price fluctuates below 49,564–50,004, showing compression rather than expansion.
Volume profile reveals most January Points of Control are revisited, except January 13’s POC, near the upper microband. This untested level suggests an unfinished auction.
Market Focus
The focus is on price behaviour at these key levels, rather than predicting market direction. Denis Joeli Fatiaki uses his experience as a trader and strategist to provide analysis.
The federal government’s budget deficit was $144.75 billion in December, a record for that month and 68% higher than December 2024. Meanwhile, Pump.fun increased nearly 5% after adding a new feature on its platform.
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Historical Context
Looking back to this time in early 2025, we saw Dow futures stuck in a tight range just below the 50,000 level. That period of compression, marked by an unfinished auction on the volume profile, eventually resolved with a strong move to the upside through the rest of the year. We are now seeing a similar period of indecision, just at a higher altitude.
Today, the market is coiling again, holding above a pivot near 53,500 but struggling to build momentum. Options markets are pricing in very little movement, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) recently trading below 15, a level of calm not seen since late 2025. This low volatility suggests complacency, meaning any breakout could be sharp and sudden.
The larger economic picture remains clouded by government spending. We’ve just seen that the federal budget deficit for December 2025 hit $162 billion, surpassing the record we noted from December 2024. This continued fiscal pressure keeps inflation risks alive and may complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path in the coming months.
For the coming weeks, we should be prepared for a decisive break from the current range. Given the low implied volatility, buying straddles or strangles could be a viable strategy to capture a move regardless of direction. A sustained break above 54,200 or below 53,500 on increased volume should be seen as the trigger for the next significant leg.
