Exxon Mobil has reached a new peak, indicating an upswing in momentum. The current trend started from the low on 26 November 2025 and is progressing through a five-wave impulse pattern. Wave (1) concluded at $125.93, followed by a drop in wave (2) to $118.27, forming a zigzag pattern. Within wave (2), wave A ended at $122.39 and wave B reached $126.20, while wave C dipped to $117.90, completing this corrective phase.
Wave 3 Progression
Following this, the stock continued to rise in wave (3). Wave 1 peaked at $124.86, before wave 2 rolled back to $122.56. The climb persisted through wave 3, concluding at $131.72, before a pullback in wave 4 settled at $128.30. This pattern suggests the potential for another upward push in wave 5 of (3).
Once wave 5 is complete, an adjustment phase in wave (4) is expected to unfold, correcting from the low of 8 January 2026 before the long-term trend continues. Short-term, as long as support at $117.90 holds, any decline is expected to stabilise within a 3, 7, or 11 swing pattern. This suggests Exxon Mobil possesses a positive outlook, with sustained strength anticipated after addressing any short-term adjustments.
Based on the current structure, we see Exxon Mobil in the final stage of a strong upward move that started back in November 2025. This suggests the stock has a little more upside potential in the immediate short term. This setup could favor short-term bullish strategies, like buying near-term call options, to capture this last leg up.
However, once this final upward leg completes, we anticipate a corrective pullback. Traders should therefore be prepared to take profits on any bullish positions as the momentum peaks. Shifting to a bearish stance, such as buying put options, could be a way to capitalize on this expected temporary decline.
Market Support Factors
This technical view is supported by the broader market, with WTI crude prices recently pushing past $95 a barrel for the first time since late 2024. This strength comes from ongoing production discipline we saw from OPEC+ throughout 2025 and a recent government report showing a surprisingly large drop in U.S. oil inventories. These factors reinforce the underlying bullish case for energy stocks.
We’ve seen similar patterns before, particularly during the rally in the second quarter of 2025. Back then, the stock experienced a sharp run-up followed by a healthy multi-week pullback, which ultimately set the stage for the next major advance. This history suggests the anticipated correction could be a strategic entry point for initiating longer-term bullish positions.
The pivotal support level to watch is the $117.90 mark, which was the low point of the corrective wave in late December 2025. As long as the stock remains above this price, the bullish structure is considered valid. Any defensive strategies, such as setting stop-losses on long positions or choosing strike prices for put options, should be planned around this key threshold.
