The EUR/USD is trading around 1.1650, near a six-week low of 1.1589, with weak momentum signalled by the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 40. There is a primary resistance at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1672.
The EUR/USD pair remains below both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs, showing a bearish tendency due to flattening and declining moving averages. A decrease below the 1.1589 level could lead to a further drop towards 1.1468, the lowest point since August 2025.
Resistance Levels To Watch
Resistance might be encountered at both the nine-day EMA of 1.1672 and the 50-day EMA at 1.1677. If the pair rebounds through these EMAs, it could stabilise and shift focus to the three-month high of 1.1808, set on December 24, and 1.1918, the peak since June 2021.
A table indicates the day’s percentage changes of the Euro against major currencies. The Euro performed strongest against the Swiss Franc.
The technical analysis was produced using an AI tool. The article’s content does not provide specific investment advice and reflects solely the author’s perspectives.
Key Technical Indicators
With EUR/USD sitting near 1.1650, the technical picture suggests a bearish tilt for the coming weeks. The nine-day moving average has slipped below the 50-day, a classic signal of weakening upward momentum that we have seen before in similar market cycles. This is reinforced by last week’s US jobs report for December 2025, which came in stronger than expected with 210,000 new payrolls, pushing back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
For those anticipating a further drop, a break below the six-week low of 1.1589 is the key trigger to watch. A decisive move through this level could open the door to the 1.1468 support area, a level not seen since last August. Derivative traders might consider buying put options with a strike price around 1.1550 to capitalize on such a move, especially as recent Eurozone inflation data for December was confirmed at a two-year low of 2.1%.
On the other hand, we must watch the resistance cluster around 1.1675, where the nine and 50-day averages are converging. Should the pair manage a rebound through this area, it could signal a false breakdown and put the December 24th high of 1.1808 back in focus. Hedging bearish positions with short-dated call options above 1.1700 could be a prudent strategy to manage the risk of a sharp reversal.
The weak momentum, indicated by the Relative Strength Index at 40, suggests that any movements may be gradual rather than explosive, favoring strategies that profit from range-bound trading or a slow grind downwards. This reminds us of the choppy conditions seen in late 2024, where selling options to collect premium proved effective. The current low implied volatility, under 7% for one-month options, reflects this lack of immediate directional conviction in the market.
