USD/CAD maintains an upward trajectory, reaching approximately 1.3860 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. This trend benefits as the Canadian Dollar struggles, amid potential increased Venezuelan oil imports signalled by US President Donald Trump, which could affect demand for Canadian oil.
Prime Minister Mark Carney believes Canadian crude oil remains competitive despite potential Venezuelan competition. Carney is also set to visit China in January to explore diversifying Canada’s exports given uncertainties in US trade policy.
Canada’s Economic Indicators
Canada’s Ivey PMI rose to 51.9 in December 2025, surpassing expectations and reflecting economic expansion after November’s contraction. Meanwhile, data shows a decline in expected US Nonfarm Payroll growth, from 64,000 in November to a projected 55,000 in December.
The US Services PMI rose to 54.4 in December from 52.6 in November, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management. The ADP Employment Change in the US indicated an increase of 41,000 jobs in December, slightly below market expectations.
The Canadian Dollar is influenced by factors like the Bank of Canada’s interest rates, oil prices, and economic indicators. High oil prices typically strengthen CAD, while inflation data often prompts higher interest rates, attracting global capital inflows. Economic data, such as GDP and employment figures, also play a crucial role in CAD valuation.
Potential Global Market Impacts
The continued rise in USD/CAD above 1.3850 is a direct response to potential shifts in the global oil market. The prospect of Venezuelan supply re-entering the picture creates a significant headwind for the Canadian dollar, as it threatens the price of WTI crude, which is already struggling to hold $75 a barrel. Historically, when new supply sources emerge unexpectedly, we’ve seen Canadian crude differentials widen, negatively impacting the currency.
Despite this, we cannot overlook the surprising strength in Canada’s domestic economy, highlighted by the Ivey PMI data from December 2025 showing a return to expansion. This suggests an underlying resilience that complicates a purely bearish view on the Canadian dollar. This strong domestic data may keep the Bank of Canada from signaling any imminent rate cuts, providing a floor for the currency for now.
The main event risk this week is tomorrow’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will heavily influence the US dollar’s next move. The ADP report from December 2025 already came in below expectations, and a second weak labor report could amplify bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut by mid-2026, a scenario that futures markets are already pricing with a 60% probability. This makes the US dollar’s current strength appear fragile.
Given this backdrop of conflicting data, we see a strong case for using options to trade the expected increase in volatility. One-week implied volatility on USD/CAD options has already risen to over 9.5%, up from a 7.2% average in December 2025, indicating the market is bracing for a significant move. Buying a straddle ahead of the jobs report could be a prudent strategy to capitalize on a sharp price swing, regardless of the direction.
We are also watching key technical levels, as the pair is now testing resistance that held for much of the fourth quarter of 2025. A strong US jobs number could propel the pair through the 1.3900 psychological barrier, triggering further gains. A miss, however, could see a sharp rejection from this level, leading to a quick reversal back toward the 1.3700 support zone.
