In October, Nonfarm Payrolls in the United States decreased by 105,000 compared to the previous month’s 119,000. The decline was followed by an increase of 64,000 in November, as noted in a report.
Unemployment Rate and Retail Sales
The unemployment rate in November was reported at 4.6%. Additionally, the US Retail Sales remained largely unchanged in October at $732.6 billion, missing market expectations.
In currency news, the USD/JPY fell as the yen gained strength, partly due to weak US jobs data. The Euro moved to a three-month high with the EUR/USD reaching 1.1800, benefiting from broader USD weakness.
The GBP/USD rose to a two-month high, trading above 1.3430, helped by positive British PMI data. Gold prices saw an increase above $4,300, riding on renewed USD weakness and softening economic reports.
BNB, formerly Binance Coin, was trading down to around $855 amid negative on-chain indicators. This reflects increased retail activity affecting the market sentiment.
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Cooling US Economy
We are seeing clear signs of a cooling US economy, with the loss of 105,000 jobs in October being a major red flag. This slowdown is confirmed by the latest December PMI figures, which show a loss of momentum in both manufacturing and services. The weak rebound of only 64,000 jobs in November does little to change this negative outlook for the dollar.
The US Dollar is taking a significant hit across the board, and this weakness looks set to continue into early 2026. Looking back, the market sentiment shifted away from aggressive rate hikes during 2024, and this recent string of poor data solidifies expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to stay put or even consider cutting rates. This explains why we see pairs like EUR/USD testing multi-month highs near 1.1800.
This environment is ideal for strategies that profit from a falling dollar and rising volatility. We should consider buying call options on currency pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD to capitalize on their upward momentum with limited risk. Given that the unemployment rate has climbed to 4.6%, a level not seen since early 2022, betting on continued market swings through volatility-based derivatives could also be profitable.
We are also seeing a unique opportunity in the Japanese Yen, which is strengthening against the dollar. This move is driven by a double effect: broad USD weakness combined with growing speculation that the Bank of Japan may be considering policy tightening. This makes shorting the USD/JPY pair through futures or buying put options an attractive trade.
In times of economic uncertainty and a weakening dollar, Gold remains a primary safe-haven asset. The price consolidating around $4,300 an ounce reflects this flight to safety, a level significantly higher than the $2,000-$2,400 range we saw back in 2023 and 2024. Using derivatives like gold futures or call options on gold ETFs allows for leveraged exposure to this ongoing trend.
