In November, China increased its crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia and Iran, while imports from Russia fell due to weak demand and new US sanctions. Independent refiners began purchasing discounted Iranian crude following new import quotas, potentially reducing reliance on Russian oil.
Data from Kpler shows that China’s crude imports from Saudi Arabia reached 1.59 million barrels per day, a five-month high, and 1.35 million barrels per day from Iran, a three-month high. Conversely, Russian seaborne imports decreased to 1.19 million barrels per day.
China’s Oil Import Trends
This decline is linked to lower purchase volumes from state-owned refineries and the near-complete utilisation of quotas by independent refiners. This trend may suggest that US sanctions against Russia’s top oil firms, imposed two and a half weeks ago, are starting to impact.
Official data on the source of China’s imports will be released next week. Trading sources and analysts noted that independent refineries purchased Iranian oil at substantial discounts from onshore storage after receiving new quotas. Meanwhile, interest in Russian oil has reportedly remained low.
We are seeing a familiar pattern in China’s crude purchasing, one that echoes the market shifts from back in late 2023. Beijing’s independent refiners are once again hunting for the cheapest available barrels to support a fragile economic recovery. With the latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November 2025 barely in expansion territory at 50.1, the focus on discounted crude is more intense than ever.
Geopolitical Pressure and Trading Opportunities
Fresh U.S. measures tightening the enforcement of sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil shipments are clearly having an effect, much as they did in the past. This geopolitical pressure is pushing Chinese buyers towards whichever source offers the steepest discount and lowest risk of disruption. We’ve seen the Brent-Urals spread widen by over $4 in the last month, now sitting near $23 a barrel as a result.
For the coming weeks, traders should consider positions that capitalize on this widening price differential between sanctioned and non-sanctioned crude grades. This could involve going long on Middle Eastern benchmarks like Dubai swaps while shorting Russian Urals futures. The growing uncertainty also makes buying volatility through options, like Brent straddles for February delivery, an attractive strategy.
We will be closely watching for the next official release of Chinese import quotas, which will signal the purchasing power of the independent refiners. Satellite tanker tracking data will provide the earliest confirmation of cargo flows from Russia versus the Middle East. Any sign that Russian volumes are holding up better than expected would be a signal to reassess these positions.
