Weekly Focus
The day appears to lack any major scheduled events, and market participants are anticipating next week’s US labour market data. This anticipation could lead to stable price action for several days.
Nvidia’s earnings report, which will be released after the US market closes, is a key focus in the stocks sector. The US Jobless Claims figures, due tomorrow, are this week’s most important data.
Attention will shift to labour market figures arriving next week, including the NFP report. This data is expected to influence market sentiment.
With very little scheduled until next week’s labor data, we are likely looking at several days of sideways price action. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently hovering around 13, reflecting this market calm and making it a challenging environment for directional bets. For now, this low volatility could reward traders selling premium through strategies like iron condors on major indices.
The first major test of this quiet market comes after the close today with Nvidia’s earnings. This single event could easily inject a blast of volatility, not just into tech but across the S&P 500. The options market is currently pricing in a post-earnings move of about 8.5% for the stock, so being short volatility heading into that report is a risky proposition.
Derivatives Strategy
Our main focus will quickly shift to next week’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Looking back, the July 2025 report showed a slightly softer-than-expected gain of 170,000 jobs, which has made the Federal Reserve more data-dependent than ever. Tomorrow’s Jobless Claims figures, forecast to come in around 225,000, will be watched closely as a leading indicator for that larger report.
This situation suggests a two-phased derivatives strategy for the coming weeks. For the next day or two, selling premium might work, but it’s crucial to close those positions before the Nvidia report or hold them with very wide break-evens. As we approach the NFP release next week, we can expect implied volatility to rise, which may present an opportunity to buy options like straddles to play a potential breakout.
