Key Points
- Spot gold trades at $3,331.49, little changed, with futures down 0.1% at $3,375.40.
- Markets price an 84% chance of a September 25bp Fed cut ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks.
Gold prices were steady on Tuesday, with traders holding back ahead of the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Wyoming later this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak between August 21–23, and markets are searching for signals on the pace and depth of future easing.
According to CME FedWatch, traders now assign an 84% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the September meeting.
Cross-border conflicts added another layer, as US President Donald Trump reassured Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy that Washington would help guarantee Kyiv’s security in any settlement with Russia.
That came after Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, which ended without an agreement but set the stage for direct talks between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders. Analysts warned that a breakthrough deal could weigh on gold, stripping away part of its geopolitical risk premium.
Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) rallied strongly earlier in the year from around 2,660 to its April peak of 3,500, but since then price action has flattened into a prolonged consolidation.
For the past few months, the metal has traded sideways between roughly 3,250 and 3,400, with the moving averages clustering together and showing little directional bias. The MACD is also flat near the zero line, reflecting the lack of momentum and the indecisive tone in the market.
Near-term resistance remains at 3,400–3,500, and a breakout above could re-establish bullish momentum toward new highs. On the downside, support lies around 3,250, with further risk down to 3,150 if that floor breaks.
Until then, gold is likely to remain range-bound, with traders watching macro cues like US inflation data and central bank signals for the next catalyst.
Cautious Forecast
If Powell signals more aggressive easing, gold could test $3,400 and move toward the $3,500 ceiling. Conversely, hawkish undertones or credible signs of a Russia-Ukraine deal could pressure prices lower, putting $3,300 back in play.
