SpaceX is due to report third-quarter results after Tuesday\u2019s session, but the immediate market focus is the lock-up timetable rather than the income statement. On Thursday, the second full trading day after earnings, up to 1.3 billion shares held by employees and early backers become eligible for sale, the biggest single release since the June 12 listing. The stock has moved from a $135 offer price to above $225, then to near $105, and back to the mid-$140s within four months. Six earlier unlocks, totalling up to 2.27 billion shares, passed without derailing trading, yet Thursday\u2019s tranche is larger than those six combined, with index funds\u2014required to add the stock after its July inclusion in the NASDAQ-100\u2014seen as the main natural buyer.<\/p>\n\n
The lock-up runs 180 days to December 8 but opens in result-linked stages: 20% (912 million shares) unlocked after the first report, a 10% price-triggered slice never unlocked, and four tranches of 7% (319 million to 328 million) followed. After Thursday\u2019s 28% release, a further 7% opens on October 26, leaving about 798 million to unlock on December 8; Musk\u2019s up to 6.4 billion shares remain locked until June 12, 2027. On prospectus figures, about 22% of the 13.2 billion shares can trade now, rising to roughly 32% after Thursday, 34% after October 26 and 40% after December 8. Moves on prior release days were +6.1%, -4.0%, -3.9%, +0.4%, -0.2% and +1.2%, while filings show one insider sale: 342K shares by President Gwynne Shotwell. Meanwhile, NASDAQ-100 mechanics lifted projected weight to 2.8% at the September 21 rebalance, with JPMorgan estimating $15.5 billion of index buying; the shares freed on Thursday and October 26 feed into the November 30 reference date for the December 21 rebalance.<\/p>\n\n
Operationally, second-quarter revenue was $7.8 billion, up 92% year on year, against $18.4 billion of capex\u2014$15.8 billion for AI data centres\u2014while cash and securities stood at $100 billion after $86 billion raised; third-quarter forecasts call for about $12.9 billion of revenue and roughly $19.6 billion of spending, following an August report where capex was about 40% above forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n