{"id":69737,"date":"2026-10-20T05:02:16","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T05:02:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/uncategorized\/eurusd-holds-steady-amid-political-unrest-across-europe\/"},"modified":"2026-10-20T05:02:16","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T05:02:16","slug":"eurusd-holds-steady-amid-political-unrest-across-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/eurusd-holds-steady-amid-political-unrest-across-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"EURUSD Holds Steady Amid Political Unrest Across Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad6d3bd722b1.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>EURUSD trades near 1.12181, up 0.06%, as the US dollar struggles to establish a clear direction during Tuesday&#8217;s Asian session.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Political unrest in France and Italy raises concerns about European stability, placing pressure on regional equities and government bonds.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The French-German 10-year government bond yield spread widened by 9.9 basis points to 147.3 basis points on Monday.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The US Dollar Index reached 102 on Monday, while the US 10-year Treasury yield remained at 5.131%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Move<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EURUSD traded near <strong>1.12181<\/strong> during Tuesday&#8217;s Asian session, recording a modest gain of <strong>0.06%. <\/strong>A gradual improvement in investor confidence supported risk-sensitive currencies, although political uncertainty across Europe limited the euro&#8217;s advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The currency pair moved within a narrow intraday range, trading at a high of<strong> 1.12203<\/strong> and a low of <strong>1.12089. <\/strong>Price action remained concentrated around<strong> 1.12180<\/strong>, suggesting that neither buyers nor sellers had established sustained control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US Dollar Index traded as high as <strong>102<\/strong> on Monday, reflecting continued demand despite unstable global conditions. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield held steady at <strong>5.131%<\/strong>, leaving EURUSD at risk of European political sentiment rather than US bond yields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Political developments in France have become a source of uncertainty for the euro. French authorities introduced curfews in several cities on Monday after nationwide anti-government protests disrupted public order, adding pressure during the final months of President Emmanuel Macron&#8217;s term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The unrest has raised concerns about France&#8217;s fiscal outlook, particularly as Parliament prepares for its first formal vote on the revenue section of the proposed <strong>2027 budget<\/strong>. Further political disagreements could complicate fiscal negotiations and French government debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bond markets have already reflected these concerns. The yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds widened to <strong>142.3 basis points<\/strong> on Monday. The widening spread indicates that investors are demanding a higher yield premium to hold French debt relative to German bonds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Investors Abandoning French Government Bonds for German Bunds <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5icGXC7osx\">https:\/\/t.co\/5icGXC7osx<\/a><\/p>&mdash; WSJ Markets (@WSJmarkets) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/WSJmarkets\/status\/2108361012051136600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 9, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Political tensions have also extended to Italy, where the government announced plans to deploy 500 troops following two days of unrest. Although the euro has remained relatively stable, instability across major European economies could increase pressure on the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Violent protests spread from France to Italy and Belgium <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/evvm5uqg7i\">https:\/\/t.co\/evvm5uqg7i<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Financial Times (@FT) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/FT\/status\/2112184808025583737?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 19, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Trading Levels<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/EURUSD\/?exchange=OANDA\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">EURUSD chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"OANDA:EURUSD\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Level<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Price<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Technical significance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resistance 2<\/td><td>1.12203<\/td><td>Session high and breakout level<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resistance 1<\/td><td>1.122<\/td><td>Immediate psychological resistance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pivot<\/td><td>1.1218<\/td><td>Current trading area<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 1<\/td><td>1.1216<\/td><td>Near-term reaction level<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 2<\/td><td>1.1214<\/td><td>Recent intraday support<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 3<\/td><td>1.12089<\/td><td>Session low and downside reference<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EURUSD experiences a short-term recovery followed by consolidation <strong>below 1.12200<\/strong>. The nine-period moving average (MA9) has turned higher following the rebound from 1.12140, although the latest price action suggests momentum is slowing near resistance.has. The pair struggled to sustain gains <strong>above 1.12200<\/strong>, making this the immediate resistance level to monitor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the downside, <strong>1.12160<\/strong> represents the first support area. A move below this level could expose<strong> 1.12140<\/strong>, where buyers previously emerged. A deeper decline towards<strong> 1.12089 <\/strong>would suggest that the recovery has lost momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bullish and Bearish Setups<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad6d3bec05d8.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Scenario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Trigger<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Potential target<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bullish breakout<\/td><td>Sustained move above 1.12203<\/td><td>1.12220\u20131.12240<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bullish recovery<\/td><td>Hold above 1.12160<\/td><td>1.12180\u20131.12200<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bearish rejection<\/td><td>Failure to break 1.12200<\/td><td>1.1216<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bearish breakdown<\/td><td>Break below 1.12140<\/td><td>1.12089<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A bullish scenario would require EURUSD to establish support <strong>above 1.12160<\/strong> before challenging the 1.12200\u20131.12203 resistance area. Improving risk sentiment and easing European political concerns could support this move. A confirmed breakout may allow the pair to extend towards 1.12220\u20131.12240.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Conversely, a bearish scenario could develop if EURUSD continues to encounter selling pressure<strong> near 1.12200<\/strong>. A break below 1.12160 would weaken the immediate recovery, while a decline through 1.12140 could expose the session low at 1.12089. Further widening in French-German bond spreads could reinforce this downside pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Disclaimer<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The price levels and market scenarios above reflect the author\u2019s assessment at the time of writing. They do not represent financial advice or an official recommendation from VT Markets. Traders should conduct their own analysis and manage risk carefully.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Prediction: What&#8217;s Next?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EURUSD may remain range-bound in the near term as traders weigh improving global risk appetite against growing political uncertainty in Europe. The pair&#8217;s stability suggests that investors have not yet treated France&#8217;s political unrest as a broader eurozone financial crisis. However, further pressure on French government bonds could weaken confidence in the single currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The next major catalyst will be developments surrounding France&#8217;s 2027 budget and European bond markets&#8217; reaction. Progress towards a workable fiscal agreement could ease sovereign risk concerns and support EURUSD. On the other hand, prolonged political unrest or widening bond spreads could push the pair lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US monetary policy expectations will also influence the outlook. Elevated Treasury yields and renewed demand for the dollar could limit the euro&#8217;s recovery, while softer US yields may provide room for EURUSD to advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trade EURUSD with VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EURUSD is one of the world\u2019s most actively traded forex pairs, offering traders exposure to changing expectations surrounding the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, inflation, economic growth and global risk sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VT Markets,<\/a> traders can monitor EURUSD price movements, analyse technical trends and manage positions through platforms including MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5 and the VT Markets App.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Start a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">live trading account<\/a> today and explore <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forex pairs<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/precious-metals\/xauusd\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gold<\/a> and more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Frequently Asked Questions<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why is EURUSD trading near 1.12181?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EURUSD is trading near 1.12181 as a modest recovery in global risk appetite supports the euro, while political unrest in France and Italy limits gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How could France&#8217;s political unrest affect EURUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Political instability can weaken confidence in European assets and increase demand for safer alternatives. If French government bond yields continue rising relative to German yields, the euro could face additional selling pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What are the key resistance levels for EURUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Immediate resistance sits at 1.12200, followed by the session high at 1.12203. A sustained break above these levels could support a recovery towards 1.12220\u20131.12240.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What are the main support levels for EURUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The immediate support level is 1.12160, followed by 1.12140. If selling pressure intensifies, EURUSD could retest the session low at 1.12089.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Could EURUSD rise despite European political uncertainty?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yes. EURUSD could strengthen if US Treasury yields decline, the dollar weakens or European political conditions stabilise. However, sustained gains would likely require stronger buying momentum and a confirmed breakout above near-term resistance.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EURUSD trades near 1.12181 as political unrest in France and Italy weighs on European sentiment, while a modest recovery in risk appetite supports the euro against the US dollar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69736,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - 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