{"id":69068,"date":"2026-09-30T05:04:51","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T05:04:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/uncategorized\/audusd-drops-below-0-6965-as-australia-cpi-misses-forecast\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T05:04:51","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T05:04:51","slug":"audusd-drops-below-0-6965-as-australia-cpi-misses-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/audusd-drops-below-0-6965-as-australia-cpi-misses-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"AUDUSD Drops Below 0.6965 as Australia CPI Misses Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/img_6abc7f45ed3df.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AUDUSD fell below <strong>0.6965 <\/strong>after Australia\u2019s latest CPI data came in softer than expected, putting renewed pressure on the Australian dollar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Australia\u2019s headline CPI rose <strong>4.0% YoY<\/strong>, below the <strong>4.1% forecast<\/strong>, although inflation accelerated from the previous <strong>3.5%<\/strong> reading.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Monthly CPI increased <strong>0.4%<\/strong>, missing expectations of <strong>0.5%<\/strong> and slowing significantly from the previous <strong>1.0%<\/strong> increase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trimmed Mean CPI eased to <strong>0.2% MoM<\/strong>, below the <strong>0.3% forecast<\/strong>, signalling weaker underlying inflation momentum.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>AUDUSD experiences a sharp rejection from the <strong>0.6990\u20130.6995 resistance zone<\/strong>, followed by a high-volume sell-off toward <strong>0.6960<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders are monitoring whether the pair can regain <strong>0.6965<\/strong> or whether further downside pressure develops towards lower support levels.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Move<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AUDUSD initially consolidated around the <strong>0.6985\u20130.6990 region<\/strong>, holding relatively steady before Consumer price index (CPI) data triggered renewed selling pressure. Price then broke below the short-term moving average and accelerated lower, reaching an intraday low near <strong>0.69590<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The break below <strong>0.6965<\/strong> shows that traders are leaning toward a more dovish interpretation of the CPI data. Continued trading below this level could keep downside pressure in focus, while a recovery above<strong> 0.6965<\/strong> may signal that the initial selling is beginning to stabilise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The immediate market focus is whether buyers can stabilise the pair above <strong>0.6960.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The weaker Australian inflation data has shifted attention towards the RBA\u2019s future policy decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Australia is boldly hiking as the central bank seeks to bring inflationary pressures under control: Evening Briefing Asia <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/esAuDkQA7f\">https:\/\/t.co\/esAuDkQA7f<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2104897732376662124?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 29, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although inflation remains above the RBA\u2019s <strong>2\u20133% target range<\/strong>, the slowdown in monthly and trimmed mean inflation suggests that price pressures may be losing momentum. This could reduce expectations for additional rate increases, which may weigh on the Australian dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additionally, US dollar movement and Federal Reserve expectations influence dollar demand, potentially adding pressure on AUDUSD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Trading Levels<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/AUDUSD\/?exchange=OANDA\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">AUDUSD chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"OANDA:AUDUSD\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Level<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Type<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Explanation<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0.7<\/td><td>Resistance<\/td><td>Major psychological level and previous rejection zone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0.6990\u20130.6995<\/td><td>Resistance<\/td><td>Recent intraday high area where sellers regained control<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0.6965<\/td><td>Pivot Level<\/td><td>Current breakdown point; recovery above may signal stabilisation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0.696<\/td><td>Support<\/td><td>Immediate support zone from current consolidation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0.695<\/td><td>Support<\/td><td>Potential downside target if selling pressure continues<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>0.6965 level<\/strong> acts as the immediate pivot, with a move back above this area potentially signalling that selling pressure is easing and opening the way towards the <strong>0.6990\u20130.6995 resistance zone<\/strong>. Above this region, traders may watch the psychological <strong>0.7000 level<\/strong> as the next major upside barrier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the downside, <strong>0.6960<\/strong> remains the immediate support level where buyers are attempting to stabilise the pair, while a break below this area could expose AUDUSD towards the next support around <strong>0.6950<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bullish and Bearish Setup<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/img_6abc7f476fd7c.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Scenario<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Conditions<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Potential Market Reaction<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bullish Setup<\/td><td>AUDUSD holds above 0.6960 and breaks back above 0.6965<\/td><td>Buyers may attempt a recovery towards 0.6990<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bullish Confirmation<\/td><td>Price regains 0.6990 with improving momentum<\/td><td>Could reopen a move towards 0.7000<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bearish Setup<\/td><td>AUDUSD remains below 0.6965<\/td><td>Selling pressure may continue towards 0.6950<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bearish Confirmation<\/td><td>Break below 0.6950<\/td><td>Could expose further downside levels<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A bullish setup would develop if <strong>AUDUSD manages to hold above the 0.6960 support zone and recover above 0.6965<\/strong>. This would suggest that the recent CPI-driven sell-off may have stabilised, with buyers returning after the initial market reaction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A bearish setup remains possible if <strong>AUDUSD continues trading below 0.6965<\/strong>, showing that sellers are maintaining control after the CPI-related decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Disclaimer<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The price levels and market scenarios above reflect the author&#8217;s assessment at the time of writing. They do not represent financial advice or an official recommendation from VT Markets. Traders should conduct their own analysis and manage risk carefully.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AUDUSD Predictions: What&#8217;s Next?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AUDUSD could face further downside pressure if weak Australian inflation data continues to reduce expectations for additional RBA tightening. A more sceptical RBA outlook, combined with stronger US economic data or rising US Treasury yields, could support the US dollar and weigh on the pair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the other hand, AUDUSD could recover if upcoming Australian economic indicators show stronger growth momentum, RBA officials maintain a more hawkish stance, or global risk sentiment improves. Higher commodity prices and stronger demand expectations from China, a major trading partner of Australia, could also provide support for the Australian dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Upcoming RBA commentary and labour data are key factors to monitor as it further clues on the central bank\u2019s policy direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trade AUDUSD with VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trade AUD\/USD with competitive spreads and access to global markets through VT Markets. Monitor market movements and manage positions with flexible trading platforms such as MT4, MT5 and the VT Markets app.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Use advanced charting tools to analyse price movements and manage positions with flexible trading conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Start trading<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> forex <\/a>CFDs with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">VT Markets<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Frequently Asked Questions<\/strong><\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why did AUDUSD fall after Australia CPI data?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AUDUSD declined because inflation data came in below expectations, reducing expectations for further RBA tightening and putting pressure on the Australian dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is the key AUDUSD level to watch?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>0.6965<\/strong> level is the key short-term pivot. Holding above it may support a recovery, while remaining below it could keep downside pressure in focus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How does Australian inflation affect AUDUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Higher inflation may increase expectations for higher interest rates, potentially supporting AUD. Softer inflation may reduce rate hike expectations and weigh on the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What could push AUDUSD higher?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stronger Australian economic data, a more hawkish RBA stance, weaker US dollar performance or improved global risk sentiment could support AUDUSD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What could push AUDUSD lower?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A stronger US dollar, weaker Australian data, lower commodity prices or reduced expectations for RBA tightening could create additional downside pressure.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUDUSD moved lower after Australia\u2019s latest inflation data came in slightly below market expectations, with traders reassessing the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia\u2019s (RBA) monetary policy path. The pair broke below the 0.6965 area, with short-term momentum turning negative as sellers regained control.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69067,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69068","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"AUDUSD moved lower after Australia\u2019s latest inflation data came in slightly below market expectations, with traders reassessing the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia\u2019s (RBA) monetary policy path. 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