The US Dollar Index (DXY) held just above 99.00 on Thursday, unchanged and confined to a range of under a fifth of a point. It remains about 2.6% below the June peak just under 102.00, while trading beneath a 50-day Exponential Moving Average near 100.00 and a flat 200-day near 99.75. Three Jackson Hole remarks hit before the New York open, including two hawkish entries, yet the basket did not respond. Attention turns to Friday\u2019s 14:00 GMT Fed Chair keynote, delivered from prepared text with no questions, alongside data released at the same minute.<\/p>\n
Price action has diverged from policy optics. After the July 29 decision\u2014five straight holds, decided 9\u20133 with first dissents calling for an immediate quarter-point move\u2014DXY slid about 1.7 points from just under 101.50 to around 99.75 and has not retraced. Following August 19, when the Treasury doubled long-end buyback operations, the 30-year yield fell by more than nine basis points and DXY broke to just above 98.50. Real yields dominate the long-end rise: of 67 basis points added by the 30-year from late February to mid-August, 63 were real and four breakeven; June foreign Treasury holdings fell $72.1bn, with Japan down $26.4bn and China $25.9bn.<\/p>\n
The euro is close to 58% of DXY; the Euro area composite PMI was 52.1 in August and the ECB deposit rate is 2.25%. The yen is close to 14% and swaps imply about an 80% chance of a BoJ increase on 18 September. Friday also brings the benchmark revision, after prior rounds cut payrolls by 818K and 911K, plus Chicago PMI at 13:45 GMT (57 consensus vs 57.6 prior) and final Michigan at 14:00 (sentiment 51, expectations 50.6). Web-sourced pricing puts a September hike near one chance in three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n