{"id":57025,"date":"2026-08-20T02:55:46","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T02:55:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/uncategorized\/markets-today-traders-expect-greater-downturn-against-the-us-dollar\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T02:55:46","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T02:55:46","slug":"markets-today-traders-expect-greater-downturn-against-the-us-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/markets-today-traders-expect-greater-downturn-against-the-us-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"MARKETS TODAY: Traders expect greater downturn against the US dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

With 65.61% of traders expecting a downturn in USD\/JPY<\/a>, conventional wisdom might suggest preparing for a decrease. However, the market often defies direct expectations, and the relatively high ratio of bears might hint at an overcrowded trade<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For EUR\/JPY<\/a>, the sentiment is similarly bearish with 69.73% of traders betting on a drop and a short-to-long ratio of 2.30 to 1. Despite this, a sudden decrease in bearish intensity could be a precursor to a change in trend. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The situation with GBP\/JPY mirrors that of EUR\/JPY, with 65.45% of market participants predicting a decline. The short-to-long ratio of 1.89 to 1 suggests a significant but not overwhelming bearish sentiment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This overall sentiment of declined growth against the US dollar, combined with a reduction in bearish positions, introduces a level of uncertainty. It may be prudent to forecast a potential equilibrium or slight bullish movement, reminiscent of the 2016 surprise rally following a similar sentiment setup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stock market resilience<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Despite negative sentiment, the stock market has shown surprisingly resilience, underpinned by first-quarter earnings surpassing expectations. Despite headwinds such as inflation and high interest rates, the market’s robustness is evident.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indices-wise, this year has seen the S&P 500 <\/a>climb roughly 8%, with a 5% increase in earnings per share during the first quarter. This is the best performance since mid-2022, indicating strong market fundamentals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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$SPX<\/a> is reporting Y\/Y earnings growth of 5.0% for Q1 2024, which is above the estimate of 3.4% on March 31. #earnings<\/a>, #earningsinsight<\/a>, https:\/\/t.co\/lkqXAfZh37<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/n45wH60kwV<\/a><\/p>— FactSet (@FactSet) May 4, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote>