{"id":56668,"date":"2026-08-20T02:03:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T02:03:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/uncategorized\/traders-bet-on-feds-next-move-weakening-the-dollar\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T02:03:37","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T02:03:37","slug":"traders-bet-on-feds-next-move-weakening-the-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/traders-bet-on-feds-next-move-weakening-the-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Traders bet on Fed&#8217;s next move, weakening the dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Traders now see a 43% chance of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The dollar index dropped to 101.11, with the euro slightly higher at $1.1083.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trader sentiment has shifted amid media reports and new economic data, hinting that the Federal Reserve might lean toward a more aggressive interest rate cut. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Market participants, guided by the CME FedWatch tool, have increased their expectations for a 50-basis-point cut, now pricing in a 43% chance, up from 27% just a day earlier.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/20240913-112041-1024x465.jpg\" alt=\"Trader sentiment has shifted amid media reports and new economic data, hinting that the Federal Reserve might lean toward a more aggressive interest rate cut. \n\nMarket participants, guided by the CME FedWatch tool, have increased their expectations for a 50-basis-point cut, now pricing in a 43% chance, up from 27% just a day earlier.\" class=\"wp-image-14998\" style=\"width:1450px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em>See: Dollar index trading at 100.715 as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So what do the charts say? The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has retreated from its recent highs, with the current level around 100.67. The trend shows a decline of 1.06%, signaling bearish sentiment as traders recalibrate expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision. The 4-hour chart shows a key support level at 100.38, which has held firm since late August, providing a potential floor for the dollar\u2019s downward move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Technical indicators point to weakening momentum. The moving averages (MA 5,10,30) are converging, while the MACD histogram has crossed into negative territory, indicating a bearish trend. This suggests further downside risk if the dollar breaches the 100.38 support zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The probability of a 25-basis-point cut now stands at 57%, reflecting mixed market sentiment. This shift follows higher-than-expected U.S. jobless claims, which have added to uncertainty about the Fed&#8217;s policy direction. Recent reports from the Wall Street Journal have also hinted at indecision within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of rate cuts, further contributing to market volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the support holds, the dollar may see a short-term rebound; however, weaker economic data could drive further declines in anticipation of more aggressive rate cuts from the Fed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>You might be interested: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/sterling-falls-as-the-u-s-dollar-gains-on-jobs-fueled-rally\/\">Sterling falls as the U.S. dollar gains on jobs-fueled rally&nbsp;<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Conflicting economic signals heighten uncertainty for the Federal Reserve<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mixed economic reports this week added to the uncertainty. Layoffs remain low, despite signs of a slowing labour market, while producer prices in August rose slightly above forecasts. These developments suggest that the Federal Reserve faces a complex challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>ECB rate cut boosts euro as dollar weakens further<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, the <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/1834206189803929903\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates<\/a> on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The ECB cuts rates for the second time this year as inflation recedes toward 2% and concerns about the economy build <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Me5fLpTJtZ\">https:\/\/t.co\/Me5fLpTJtZ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/1834206189803929903?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 12, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ECB President Christine Lagarde tempered expectations of further cuts in the near term, supporting the euro\u2019s rise against the dollar, with EUR\/USD standing at $1.1083 in early trading on Friday. The dollar index, which compares the dollar against six currencies including the euro, fell to 101.11.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sterling was also 0.1% higher at $1.31415 as markets await the Bank of England\u2019s (BoE) policy meeting. With an 80% chance that rates will remain on hold, traders remain cautious after the BoE\u2019s 25-basis-point rate cut in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given the mixed economic data and growing rate cut expectations, the dollar may face further downside pressure if the Federal Reserve opts for the larger 50-basis-point cut. However, persistent inflation concerns could keep the Fed cautious, leading to more modest rate reductions in the coming months. Markets will closely watch next week\u2019s central bank meetings for further direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Start trading now \u2014 click <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><strong> to create your live VT Markets account.<\/strong><\/p>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>\n\n<!-- vt-src:14997 -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trader sentiment has shifted amid media reports and new economic data, hinting that the Federal Reserve might lean toward a more aggressive interest rate cut. Market participants, guided by the CME FedWatch tool, have increased their expectations for a 50-basis-point cut, now pricing in a 43% chance, up from 27% just a day earlier. -vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Trader sentiment has shifted amid media reports and new economic data, hinting that the Federal Reserve might lean toward a more aggressive interest rate cut. 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Market participants, guided by the CME FedWatch tool, have increased their expectations for a 50-basis-point cut, now pricing in a 43% chance, up from 27% just a day earlier. -vtmarkets.com","twitter:creator":"@vtmarketsglobal"},"aioseo_meta_data":{"post_id":"56668","title":null,"description":null,"keywords":null,"keyphrases":null,"primary_term":null,"canonical_url":null,"og_title":null,"og_description":null,"og_object_type":"default","og_image_type":"default","og_image_url":null,"og_image_width":null,"og_image_height":null,"og_image_custom_url":null,"og_image_custom_fields":null,"og_video":null,"og_custom_url":null,"og_article_section":null,"og_article_tags":null,"twitter_use_og":false,"twitter_card":"default","twitter_image_type":"default","twitter_image_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_fields":null,"twitter_title":null,"twitter_description":null,"schema":{"blockGraphs":[],"customGraphs":[],"default":{"data":{"Article":[],"Course":[],"Dataset":[],"FAQPage":[],"Movie":[],"Person":[],"Product":[],"ProductReview":[],"Car":[],"Recipe":[],"Service":[],"SoftwareApplication":[],"WebPage":[]},"graphName":"","isEnabled":true},"graphs":[]},"schema_type":"default","schema_type_options":null,"pillar_content":false,"robots_default":true,"robots_noindex":false,"robots_noarchive":false,"robots_nosnippet":false,"robots_nofollow":false,"robots_noimageindex":false,"robots_noodp":false,"robots_notranslate":false,"robots_max_snippet":null,"robots_max_videopreview":null,"robots_max_imagepreview":"large","priority":null,"frequency":null,"local_seo":null,"seo_analyzer_scan_date":"2026-08-20 08:22:25","breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":false,"open_ai":null,"ai":null,"created":"2026-08-20 02:03:37","updated":"2026-08-20 08:22:25","focus_keyword":null,"additional_keywords":null,"truseo_locale":null},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/category\/analysis\/\" title=\"Today&apos;s Analysis\">Today's Analysis<\/a>\n<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\tTraders bet on Fed\u2019s next move, weakening the dollar\n<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia"},{"label":"Today's Analysis","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/category\/analysis\/"},{"label":"Traders bet on Fed&#8217;s next move, weakening the dollar","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/traders-bet-on-feds-next-move-weakening-the-dollar\/"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56668","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56668"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56668\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56668"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56668"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56668"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}