{"id":56660,"date":"2026-08-20T02:02:02","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T02:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/uncategorized\/dollar-stabilises-as-aggressive-rate-cut-expectations-ease\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T02:02:02","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T02:02:02","slug":"dollar-stabilises-as-aggressive-rate-cut-expectations-ease","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-stabilises-as-aggressive-rate-cut-expectations-ease\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar stabilises as aggressive rate cut expectations ease"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The dollar stabilised at $1.1119 per euro as traders adjusted bets on the Fed\u2019s easing cycle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>U.S. retail sales rose by 0.1% in August, challenging predictions of a 0.2% contraction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The dollar regained some strength ahead of the Federal Reserve\u2019s highly anticipated interest rate decision, scheduled for later in the day. It has steadied at $1.1119 per euro, slightly off from its recent low of $1.1201. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Market participants have adjusted their outlook following stronger-than-expected retail sales data in the U.S., which showed a 0.1% rise in August, countering expectations of a 0.2% contraction. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This development has prompted traders to reduce bets on a sharp 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed, though a cut is still fully priced in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Fed rate cut expected to influence dollar\u2019s trajectory<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Federal Reserve&#8217;s rate decision is expected to mark the first cut in over four years, and the outcome could shift the dollar\u2019s direction further. Interest rate futures currently imply a 63% chance of a 50 basis point cut, down from nearly 70% a day earlier. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders are closely monitoring the Fed\u2019s tone, which will likely determine whether the dollar maintains its footing or resumes its decline.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A dovish stance from the Fed may drive the dollar lower, as anticipated by many in the market. However, if the Fed delivers a more aggressive cut, concerns over a sharper downturn in the U.S. economy could emerge, potentially creating headwinds for risk-sensitive currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You might be interested: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/blog\/research\/fomc-heres-why-wed-love-to-see-the-fed-cut-by-50-basis-points-in-september\/\">FOMC: Here\u2019s why we\u2019d love to see the Fed cut by 50 basis points in September<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Dollar steadies against yen as central bank meetings loom<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Asia, the dollar traded at 142.02 yen following a brief dip below the 140 yen mark during a holiday-thinned session. This week\u2019s focus on central bank meetings in both the U.S. and Japan will play a critical role in shaping the currency pair\u2019s movement. With the Bank of Japan set to meet on Friday, traders expect further volatility in the USD\/JPY pair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/usdjpy-18Sept-1-1024x475.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15042\" style=\"width:1450px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em>See: Dollar holds firm against yen as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We look to the charts for deeper insights. Here, we can see that USDJPY recovered from its recent low of 139.57, reaching a high of 142.39. The pair broke above the 50-period moving average, confirming bullish momentum. The MACD indicator is showing a bullish divergence, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, hinting that the upward move might continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders should pay close attention to the next key resistance level at 143.70, which could challenge the pair if it maintains its bullish trend. However, if USDJPY fails to break this resistance, we believe there is potential for consolidation near the 141.50 level before the next move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Other currencies<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sterling remained firm at $1.3161, supported by ongoing signs of a steadying UK economy and persistent inflation. British inflation data due later today could impact the currency, with traders anticipating the Bank of England to hold rates steady at 5% on Thursday. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CityIndexAus\/status\/1826120752673993094\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">The Australian dollar held at $0.6759, while the New Zealand dollar ticked up to $0.6194, buoyed by rising milk prices<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/CityIndexAus\/status\/1826120752673993094\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the market braces for the Fed\u2019s decision, analysts are predicting increased volatility, especially with traders expecting a broader rate cut than either a 25 or 50 basis point move. This uncertainty will likely keep the dollar on its toes in the coming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Start trading now \u2014 click <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><strong> to create your live VT Markets account.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>\n\n<!-- vt-src:15040 -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The dollar regained some strength ahead of the Federal Reserve\u2019s highly anticipated interest rate decision, scheduled for later in the day. It has steadied at $1.1119 per euro, slightly off from its recent low of $1.1201. -vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The dollar regained some strength ahead of the Federal Reserve\u2019s highly anticipated interest rate decision, scheduled for later in the day. 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It has steadied at $1.1119 per euro, slightly off from its recent low of $1.1201. -vtmarkets.com","twitter:creator":"@vtmarketsglobal"},"aioseo_meta_data":{"post_id":"56660","title":null,"description":null,"keywords":null,"keyphrases":null,"primary_term":null,"canonical_url":null,"og_title":null,"og_description":null,"og_object_type":"default","og_image_type":"default","og_image_url":null,"og_image_width":null,"og_image_height":null,"og_image_custom_url":null,"og_image_custom_fields":null,"og_video":null,"og_custom_url":null,"og_article_section":null,"og_article_tags":null,"twitter_use_og":false,"twitter_card":"default","twitter_image_type":"default","twitter_image_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_fields":null,"twitter_title":null,"twitter_description":null,"schema":{"blockGraphs":[],"customGraphs":[],"default":{"data":{"Article":[],"Course":[],"Dataset":[],"FAQPage":[],"Movie":[],"Person":[],"Product":[],"ProductReview":[],"Car":[],"Recipe":[],"Service":[],"SoftwareApplication":[],"WebPage":[]},"graphName":"","isEnabled":true},"graphs":[]},"schema_type":"default","schema_type_options":null,"pillar_content":false,"robots_default":true,"robots_noindex":false,"robots_noarchive":false,"robots_nosnippet":false,"robots_nofollow":false,"robots_noimageindex":false,"robots_noodp":false,"robots_notranslate":false,"robots_max_snippet":null,"robots_max_videopreview":null,"robots_max_imagepreview":"large","priority":null,"frequency":null,"local_seo":null,"seo_analyzer_scan_date":"2026-08-20 08:18:51","breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":false,"open_ai":null,"ai":null,"created":"2026-08-20 02:02:02","updated":"2026-08-20 08:18:51","focus_keyword":null,"additional_keywords":null,"truseo_locale":null},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/category\/analysis\/\" title=\"Today&apos;s Analysis\">Today's Analysis<\/a>\n<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\tDollar stabilises as aggressive rate cut expectations ease\n<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia"},{"label":"Today's Analysis","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/category\/analysis\/"},{"label":"Dollar stabilises as aggressive rate cut expectations ease","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-stabilises-as-aggressive-rate-cut-expectations-ease\/"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56660","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56660"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56660\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}