{"id":56599,"date":"2026-08-20T01:52:52","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T01:52:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/uncategorized\/dollar-surges-as-fed-outlook-stays-cautious\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T01:52:52","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T01:52:52","slug":"dollar-surges-as-fed-outlook-stays-cautious","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-surges-as-fed-outlook-stays-cautious\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Surges as Fed Outlook Stays Cautious"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The U.S. dollar index remains near a two-month high as strong jobs data dampen hopes for steep rate cuts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders predict an 85% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the next Fed policy meeting, with CPI data likely to influence the outcome.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. dollar&#8217;s performance continues to reflect strong economic outperformance, especially after unexpectedly robust payrolls data last week. The dollar index (DXY) remained close to its two-month high, hovering at 102.89.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Dollar hovers near two-month peak as Fed easing bets ebb before inflation data <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZRQ29FhERe\">https:\/\/t.co\/ZRQ29FhERe<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oysDyPNgtK\">pic.twitter.com\/oysDyPNgtK<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/1844230159903166887?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 10, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This upward trend underscores a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve will adopt a measured approach to any further easing, a stance reinforced by the minutes from the Fed&#8217;s latest meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, traders await the release of September\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI), expected to show core U.S. inflation at 3.2% year-on-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>You may like: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/dollar-holds-near-7-week-high-on-jobs-data\/\">Dollar Holds Near 7-Week High on Jobs Data<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The outcome of this report could shape market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve&#8217;s next moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly commented that while inflation remains a concern, the central bank is increasingly focused on maintaining a healthy labour market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-14-1024x443.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15324\" style=\"width:1449px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Picture: USD\/JPY holds near 149.25, supported by moving averages as the pair eyes a potential breakout above 149.50 as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From the chart above, we can see that USD\/JPY closed at 149.245, showing a <strong>minimal decline<\/strong> of 0.02% during the session. The pair traded within a tight range, hitting <strong>a high of 149.545<\/strong> and a low of <strong>149.001<\/strong>, reflecting a relatively <strong>stable session<\/strong> with small movements in either direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The price is currently supported by the 5, 10, and 30-period moving averages, which are all trending upward, suggesting a<strong> continuation of the bullish momentum<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The MACD (12, 26, 9) is also in positive territory, with the MACD line above the signal line, reinforcing the bullish outlook. The histogram shows positive bars, indicating increasing upward momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Support is visible near 149.001, while resistance is just above at 149.500. If the price breaks above this level, it could signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a move below support may lead to a short-term pullback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This movement suggests continued strength in the U.S. dollar, propelled by what analysts like Kyle Rodda describe as &#8220;U.S. exceptionalism,&#8221; a narrative driven by the country&#8217;s superior economic performance relative to other regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Traders Await U.S. Inflation Report as Rate Cut Expectations Shift<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite some forecasts predicting a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts across the remaining Fed meetings this year, traders seem reluctant to make strong moves without clearer signals from Fed officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We see the dollar maintaining its current levels, with room for incremental gains depending on how the CPI data plays out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders will likely continue to reassess the Federal Reserve\u2019s stance, particularly if inflation deviates from the forecasted 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If U.S. inflation comes in higher than expected, it could spark a reevaluation of rate cut expectations, with traders adjusting their positions accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\">here<\/a> to create your live VT Markets account.<\/strong><\/p>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>\n\n<!-- vt-src:15322 -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. dollar hit a 10-week high, driven by strong economic data and cautious Fed expectations. &#8211; 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