{"id":56594,"date":"2026-08-20T01:52:06","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T01:52:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/uncategorized\/dollar-hit-as-traders-boost-fed-cut-bets\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T01:52:06","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T01:52:06","slug":"dollar-hit-as-traders-boost-fed-cut-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-hit-as-traders-boost-fed-cut-bets\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Dips from Weak Jobs and Fed Rate Cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Traders now see an 83.3% chance of a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed\u2019s next meeting, up from 80.3% the previous day.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The U.S. dollar index slipped to 102.84 but is still on track for a 0.39% weekly gain.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Initial jobless claims have cast doubt over the U.S. labour market\u2019s strength, and in turn, it has led traders to bet on the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% at its next meeting in November. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A week ago, there was a much greater chance of a more aggressive 0.5% cut. This shift in sentiment caused U.S. Treasury yields to fall, with the two-year yield dropping to 3.9531% as traders adjusted their expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em>See: U.S. dollar index (USDX) is currently trading at 102.640, with the open price at 102.655 on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Inflation Concerns Meet Economic Slowdown Fears as Traders Bet on Rate Cut<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the Fed weighs the need for price stability against full employment, the recent uptick in consumer prices might act as a counterbalance to labour market concerns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The CPI data released on the same day as the jobless claims report offered a reminder that inflationary pressures still require attention. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet, traders appear more focused on the risk of an economic slowdown, thus increasing their bets for a rate cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. dollar index fell from 103.17, its highest since August 15, to 102.84, reflecting the mounting speculation that the Fed will adopt a <strong>more dovish stance<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the dollar remains up 0.39% for the week, after surging 2.06% in the previous week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This movement reflects the uncertainty around whether the Fed will lean toward economic stimulus or continue battling inflation.<br><br><strong>In case you missed it: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/dollar-holds-near-7-week-high-on-jobs-data\/\">Dollar Holds Near 7-Week High on Jobs Data<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Mixed Messages From Fed Officials Fuel Market Uncertainty and Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, different signals from Fed officials have created confusion in the market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/economics\/status\/1838229495540486537\"><strong>Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that the Fed might lower rates &#8220;a fair amount,&#8221;<\/strong><\/a> while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic implied the Fed could hold off on cuts for now. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This uncertainty has contributed to volatility but hasn\u2019t dramatically altered the market\u2019s broader outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said interest rates need to be lowered \u201csignificantly\u201d to protect the US labor market and support the US economy. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OeE3v6MqFa\">https:\/\/t.co\/OeE3v6MqFa<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg Economics (@economics) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/economics\/status\/1838229495540486537?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 23, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In foreign exchange, the dollar inched up 0.06% against the yen to 148.68, pushing back toward the previous session\u2019s peak of 149.58. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The euro stabilised at $1.09365 after bouncing from a two-month low. The Australian dollar saw a minor recovery as well, holding at $0.67395 after bouncing from a low of $0.6702.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We expect the dollar to remain under pressure if further labour market data confirm the signs of weakness. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the trajectory of inflation will likely continue to play a pivotal role in shaping the Fed\u2019s policy response, leaving room for further swings in currency and bond markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;While traders are currently betting on a quarter-point rate cut, inflationary pressures could still prompt the Fed to pause or reconsider its strategy altogether. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upcoming policy moves from China may also bring some added volatility to the commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Start trading now \u2014 click <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><strong> to create your live VT Markets account.<\/strong><\/p>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>\n\n<!-- vt-src:15340 -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. dollar rally slows as traders bet on Fed rate cuts after weak jobless claims, while inflation concerns cloud the outlook. &#8211; 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