{"id":56588,"date":"2026-08-20T01:51:10","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T01:51:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/uncategorized\/dollar-holds-firm-yen-edges-toward-key-level\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T01:51:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T01:51:10","slug":"dollar-holds-firm-yen-edges-toward-key-level","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-holds-firm-yen-edges-toward-key-level\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Holds Firm, Yen Edges Toward Key Level"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dollar index at 103.18, just below its two-month high of 103.36, with traders betting on a 25 bps Fed rate cut in November.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Yen nears the 150 mark as Japan\u2019s dovish policy stance limits support for the currency.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data in early November could influence rate expectations, despite disruptions from hurricanes and the Boeing strike.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets await China\u2019s potential fiscal measures, with reports suggesting a new 6 trillion yuan bond programme.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The dollar index (USDX) advanced to 103.18, a level not far from Monday\u2019s two-month high of 103.36. With a 2.5% rise over the past few weeks, the index is on course to snap a three-month losing streak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recent U.S. economic data has reflected a resilient economy, with inflation rising slightly above expectations in September. This has led traders to pull back on expectations for aggressive rate cuts from the Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Dollar at over two-month high, yen near 150\/dlr <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OnkWO6ByrM\">https:\/\/t.co\/OnkWO6ByrM<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/fxGf6WUYuG\">pic.twitter.com\/fxGf6WUYuG<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/1846004339892007359?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 15, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/waller20241014a.htm\">Fed Governor Christopher Waller\u2019s comments<\/a><\/strong> added further caution, as he noted that the upcoming non-farm payrolls (NFP) print might show distorted results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Waller cited disruptions from hurricanes and the Boeing strike, warning that these factors could subtract over 100,000 jobs from the October data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With this &#8220;messy&#8221; labour market reading, traders are bracing for a lack of clarity ahead of the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Key Observations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-21-1024x449.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15368\" style=\"width:1450px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Picture: USDX hovers near 102.965, with bullish momentum building ahead of key economic data and Fed signals, as seen on the <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key points to note are the <strong>USDX&#8217;s steady upward trend<\/strong>, with the index closing at <strong>102.965<\/strong> and testing resistance near <strong>103.125<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The alignment of moving averages and positive MACD momentum indicates strong buying interest, but attention is needed as upcoming <strong>U.S. retail sales<\/strong> and <strong>jobless claims data<\/strong> could shift momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed&#8217;s smaller-than-expected rate cut expectations are providing support, but further gains will depend on whether the dollar can break past resistance or face a pullback towards <strong>102.530<\/strong> as support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the broader context, the US dollar has recently strengthened, hitting a nine-week high amid expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement smaller rate cuts than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Market participants now expect a more modest easing cycle, with roughly <strong>45 basis points<\/strong> in cuts priced for <strong>2024 <\/strong>and another <strong>98.5 basis points<\/strong> expected in <strong>2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Pressure on the Yen Builds as Key Level Looms<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The dollar&#8217;s strength has weighed heavily on the yen, which touched a 2-1\/2-month high of 149.98 per dollar on Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The yen last reached the 150 level in August, and traders are now on high alert for potential intervention by the Bank of Japan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Governor Kazuo Ueda\u2019s <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/asia\/boj-may-not-be-dovish-uedas-cautious-rhetoric-suggests-2024-10-10\/\">dovish shift<\/a><\/strong>, along with opposition to rate hikes from Japan\u2019s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, has dimmed hopes of tighter policy in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>China\u2019s stimulus in focus as markets await fiscal boost<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elsewhere, China&#8217;s offshore yuan traded at <strong>7.0935 per dollar<\/strong> after reports suggested that China may issue <strong>6 trillion yuan<\/strong> ($850 billion) <strong>in bonds<\/strong> over three years to stimulate its slowing economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analysts expect further announcements from the upcoming National People&#8217;s Congress standing committee meeting later this month, which could offer additional fiscal measures to bolster growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Australian dollar remained <strong>steady<\/strong> at <strong>$0.67275<\/strong>, while the New Zealand dollar <strong>dipped 0.13%<\/strong> to <strong>$0.6089<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>euro <\/strong>also stayed <strong>subdued<\/strong>, last trading at <strong>$1.0908<\/strong>, as traders await the <strong>European Central Bank&#8217;s policy decision<\/strong> on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With the ECB likely to implement another rate cut, the euro remains under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed\u2019s cautious easing path, combined with the yen\u2019s vulnerability to further depreciation, suggests that volatility in currency markets may continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders will closely monitor upcoming U.S. retail sales data, jobless claims, and non-farm payrolls in the lead-up to the November FOMC meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Start trading now \u2014 click <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\">here<\/a><\/strong><strong> to create your live VT Markets account.<\/strong><\/p>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>\n\n<!-- vt-src:15367 -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. dollar stayed near a two-month high as traders expect gradual Fed cuts, while the yen neared 150, raising intervention risks. \u2013 vtmarkets.com 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