Societe Generale\u2019s strategists assessed World Gold Council survey responses and physical market flows to estimate central-bank gold demand. Year to date, net purchases are +40 tonnes, with Turkey and Poland responsible for two-thirds of the total, and the bank expects a return of visible buying from Q4 2026. To better align intentions with execution, the analysis concentrates on a six\u2011month window after the survey rather than a full year, arguing this horizon better matches portfolio visibility.<\/p>\n
On that basis, regression estimates from the 2026 survey imply a further c. 100\u2013120 tonnes of purchases over the rest of the year, about double the volume seen in the first four months. Flow indicators used alongside the survey include LBMA vault movements and UK export data: in the model, a 20\u2011tonne rise in vault holdings aligns with exports of about 61 tonnes, which sits below the post\u20112022 average of 73 tonnes but above the 53\u2011tonne average since 2015 for this point in the year. The note also links gold pricing to US real yields, with 10Y real yields expected to stay above 2% through Q3 before easing into year\u2011end and H1 2027.<\/p>\n
Given the current date of June 29, 2026, we see a neutral outlook for gold over the summer. U.S. 10-year real yields are holding firm above 2%, making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive for the time being. This suggests gold prices will likely remain range-bound in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this environment is well-suited for strategies that collect premium, such as selling covered calls against existing holdings or establishing iron condors. These positions benefit from low volatility and the passage of time. We would advise against buying outright call options for the short term, as they risk expiring worthless if the price stagnates as we expect.<\/p>\n
Under the surface, however, central bank demand is poised to re-accelerate later this year. While visible purchases have been slow in 2026, this follows record-breaking buying in 2022 and 2023, where central banks added over 1,000 tonnes each year. We project an additional 100-120 tonnes of official buying before year-end, which should provide a solid floor for prices.<\/p>\n
We are closely monitoring physical market signals like outflows from LBMA vaults and an increase in UK gold exports. A sustained rise in monthly UK exports above 60 tonnes would be a strong confirmation that large, institutional buyers are re-entering the market. This would be a leading indicator of the expected price strength in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n
Therefore, our strategy will shift to become more bullish as we move into autumn. As signs emerge that the Federal Reserve may pivot due to slowing economic data, real yields should begin to fall. We will look to position for this by buying longer-dated call options or bull call spreads to capitalize on the expected rally into 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n