Silver (XAG\/USD) recovered about half of its earlier losses and traded near $74.35 in early European deals on Monday, but remained almost 2% lower. The move came as oil prices rebounded after planned US\u2013Iran talks in Pakistan failed.<\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that efforts towards a permanent Middle East ceasefire did not succeed, after Tehran denied dropping its nuclear aims. Trump then instructed the US Navy to blockade maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports.<\/p>\n
In an interview with Fox Business, Trump said US petrol prices could stay at current levels or rise through the November elections. Higher oil prices have lifted inflation expectations and may increase bets on near-term Federal Reserve rate rises, which can weigh on non-yielding metals such as silver.<\/p>\n
In late March, traders priced in two Fed rate hikes for this year, but later removed those expectations after a two-week US\u2013Iran ceasefire was announced. At the time of writing, XAG\/USD stayed near the 20-day EMA at about $75.05, with the RSI struggling to move above 50.00.<\/p>\n
Support is seen near $73.74. A daily close above $75.05 could allow a rebound towards the April 2 high of $81.13.<\/p>\n
Given the events leading up to today, April 13, 2026, the immediate outlook for silver appears negative. The recent breakdown in US-Iran negotiations has caused a spike in oil prices, with WTI crude now trading above $92 per barrel, pushing inflation expectations sharply higher. This directly undermines the case for holding a non-yielding asset like silver.<\/p>\n
We are seeing a major repricing of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations based on this new inflationary pressure. Fed funds futures now imply a greater than 70% probability of a rate hike by the June meeting, a dramatic shift from late March when such bets were almost nonexistent. This renewed hawkish sentiment from the Fed is a significant headwind for silver prices.<\/p>\n
In the coming weeks, derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from falling prices or rising volatility. Buying put options with strike prices below the key $73.74 support level could prove effective if the naval blockade continues to disrupt oil markets. This level is a critical line that, if breached, could signal a much deeper price correction.<\/p>\n
The heightened geopolitical risk means volatility is likely to remain elevated, and we should be prepared for sharp price swings. The Cboe Silver ETF Volatility Index (VXSLV) has already jumped 15% in the past week, suggesting traders are bracing for significant moves. This environment makes defined-risk option strategies more appealing than outright shorting of futures contracts.<\/p>\n
We will be watching the 20-day moving average around $75.05 as a crucial pivot point. Any failure by silver to reclaim this level on a daily closing basis will reinforce the bearish outlook. However, a decisive move back above this mark would suggest the immediate selling pressure has exhausted itself and would force us to reassess our short-term negative bias.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Silver rebounded near $74.35 but stayed down 2% as oil rose, boosting inflation and Fed hike bets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t