{"id":50342,"date":"2026-04-06T18:08:35","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T18:08:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/wti-slipped-under-102-retreating-from-106-44-to-near-101-as-us-iran-peace-talks-progressed\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T18:08:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T18:08:35","slug":"wti-slipped-under-102-retreating-from-106-44-to-near-101-as-us-iran-peace-talks-progressed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/live-updates\/wti-slipped-under-102-retreating-from-106-44-to-near-101-as-us-iran-peace-talks-progressed\/","title":{"rendered":"WTI slipped under $102, retreating from $106.44 to near $101, as US-Iran peace talks progressed"},"content":{"rendered":"WTI fell about $5 on Monday, sliding from a $106.44 session high to near $101.00 per barrel. The move followed reports that the US and Iran may be closer to a peace deal via international intermediaries, after prices had traded above $106.00.\n\nReuters reported that the US and Iran have received a framework for a 45-day ceasefire that could end hostilities immediately. The framework also points to a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which helped push oil prices lower, though WTI stayed above $100.00.\n\n

Geopolitical Risk And Early Price Support<\/h3>\nEarlier, Donald Trump warned Iran that US action could target bridges and energy sites if Hormuz was not reopened by Tuesday, 8 PM Eastern time (00:00 GMT). That threat added to worries about retaliation against US interests in the Middle East and supported prices in early Asian trading.\n\nCrude has risen about 50% since Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz during the first weeks of the war. Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil supply.\n\nOPEC and allies agreed to raise output quotas by 206K barrels per day in May. Price reaction was limited, as the Hormuz closure and damage to Gulf oilfields may constrain supply plans.\n\nThe drop below $102 presents a critical moment for us. This decline is fueled entirely by the hope of a US-Iran ceasefire, which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. We should prepare for significant volatility, as any failure in these talks could send prices right back over $106.\n\n

Trading Approach For Elevated Implied Volatility<\/h3>\nImplied volatility is likely to remain elevated, reflecting the binary outcome of these peace negotiations. This suggests that buying options, such as straddles, could be a prudent strategy to capitalize on a large price swing, regardless of direction. If the deal fails, calls will profit; if it succeeds and supply returns, puts will become valuable.\n\nWe must also consider the latest EIA report, which showed a surprise build in crude inventories of 3.2 million barrels last week. This indicates that underlying supply may be stronger than previously thought, even without the immediate return of Iranian barrels. A successful peace deal combined with this inventory build would accelerate any downward price pressure.\n\nOn the demand side, recent forecasts from the International Energy Agency have trimmed global growth expectations for the second half of the year. This potential softening in demand was masked by the recent 50% price spike caused by the conflict. Now, it re-emerges as a key factor that could keep a lid on any future price rallies.\n\nWe saw a similar pattern back in 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine, when prices initially soared before gradually declining over many months. That event taught us that markets eventually price in geopolitical risk and rebalance around new supply realities. Should the Strait of Hormuz reopen, we could see a prolonged downtrend as the war premium evaporates from the market.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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WTI tumbled $5 as US-Iran ceasefire framework hinted at Hormuz reopening, easing supply fears, despite threats.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t