{"id":49876,"date":"2026-03-26T01:51:53","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T01:51:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/aud-usd-hovers-near-0-6960-as-mixed-australian-inflation-oil-volatility-and-rba-expectations-unsettle-traders\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T01:51:53","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T01:51:53","slug":"aud-usd-hovers-near-0-6960-as-mixed-australian-inflation-oil-volatility-and-rba-expectations-unsettle-traders","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/live-updates\/aud-usd-hovers-near-0-6960-as-mixed-australian-inflation-oil-volatility-and-rba-expectations-unsettle-traders\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD hovers near 0.6960 as mixed Australian inflation, oil volatility and RBA expectations unsettle traders"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD fell towards the 0.6960 area as traders weighed mixed Australian inflation data and changes in global risk sentiment. The pair was near 0.6962, after an earlier dip still kept near-term moves cautious.\n\nAustralia\u2019s February headline CPI eased to about 3.7% year on year. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI rose 0.2% month on month and 3.3% year on year, leaving underlying inflation above the RBA\u2019s target.\n\n

Key Macro Drivers<\/h3>\nOil price swings linked to the Iran war added uncertainty for the inflation outlook. This supported expectations that the RBA may keep policy tight, while the US Dollar stayed firm amid the Fed\u2019s cautious stance and ongoing inflation concerns.\n\nOn the 4-hour chart, the pair remained below the 20- and 100-period SMAs, with both trending lower. The RSI hovered near 40, pointing to a mild bearish tilt rather than strong selling momentum.\n\nResistance sat at 0.6964 and 0.6972. Support was at 0.6959 and 0.6944, with a break below 0.6944 seen as a trigger for further downside.\n\nWe are seeing the AUD\/USD struggle in a tight range as conflicting forces weigh on the pair. The Reserve Bank of Australia is under pressure to remain hawkish, especially with Brent crude trading consistently above $105 a barrel, which is expected to reignite inflation. The RBA has held its cash rate at 4.60% for the last four meetings, signaling it has little room to ease policy soon.\n\n

Strategy And Volatility Setup<\/h3>\nAustralia\u2019s February CPI print of 3.7% offered a brief dip, but this is viewed as temporary against the backdrop of rising energy costs. This underlying inflationary pressure supports the Australian Dollar and prevents a significant sell-off. For now, the market is pricing in zero chance of an RBA rate cut before the third quarter.\n\nOn the other side, the US Dollar is finding support from a cautious Federal Reserve. The latest US core PCE reading came in at 3.1%, stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, while February non-farm payrolls added a strong 250,000 jobs. This data reinforces the view that the Fed will not rush to cut rates, keeping the Greenback firm.\n\nThis fundamental clash suggests volatility is likely to increase in the coming weeks. We believe derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from a potential breakout, as the pair is coiled tightly below the 0.6972 resistance. Buying put options with a strike price below the 0.6944 support level could be a prudent way to position for a downside move driven by sustained US Dollar strength.\n\nWhen we look back at 2025, we remember the pair trading in a wide band, swinging between roughly 0.6500 and 0.7100 on shifting central bank expectations. That period showed us how quickly sentiment can turn, making long volatility plays attractive right now. The current tight consolidation is unlikely to last, especially with major economic data releases scheduled for early April.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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AUD\/USD drifted near 0.6960 as mixed CPI, oil volatility, and firm USD kept sentiment cautious.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t