{"id":49118,"date":"2026-03-13T20:50:35","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T20:50:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/rabobanks-strategists-cut-short-term-eur-usd-forecasts-as-hormuz-disruption-lifts-oil-and-gas-prices-worldwide\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T20:50:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T20:50:35","slug":"rabobanks-strategists-cut-short-term-eur-usd-forecasts-as-hormuz-disruption-lifts-oil-and-gas-prices-worldwide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/live-updates\/rabobanks-strategists-cut-short-term-eur-usd-forecasts-as-hormuz-disruption-lifts-oil-and-gas-prices-worldwide\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019s strategists cut short-term EUR\/USD forecasts as Hormuz disruption lifts oil and gas prices worldwide"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank has cut its short-term EUR\/USD forecasts due to ongoing disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz and higher oil and gas prices. It expects the euro to underperform the US dollar over the next 1\u20133 months.\n\nThe bank lowered its 1-month EUR\/USD forecast to 1.14 from 1.16. It reduced its 3-month forecast to 1.15 from 1.16.\n\n

Near Term Forecast Changes<\/h3>\nRabobank kept its medium-term EUR\/USD forecasts unchanged for now, but said they remain under review as energy and geopolitical risks develop. It also noted that its earlier EUR\/USD forecasts were already below market consensus and near the lower end of market projections.\n\nThe report said the euro is near the bottom of the currency performance table. It linked this to the market holding long EUR positions for months and to a worsening Eurozone terms of trade, as the region is a net energy importer.\n\nThe article states it was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.\n\nGiven the prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, we have lowered our near-term EUR\/USD forecasts. We now see the pair trading at 1.14 in one month and 1.15 in three months, down from our previous target of 1.16. This adjustment reflects the high energy prices now acting as a significant tax on the Eurozone economy.\n\n

Potential Trading Strategies<\/h3>\nThe situation is amplified by soaring energy costs, with Brent crude futures surging past $115 a barrel this month, a level not seen since the summer of 2022. This has directly impacted the Eurozone’s trade balance, which recent data shows widened significantly last month due to a jump in the cost of energy imports. The United States, being a net energy exporter, is comparatively insulated from this shock, strengthening the dollar’s appeal.\n\nDerivative traders should consider positioning for further euro weakness against the dollar in the coming weeks. Buying EUR\/USD put options with strike prices around the 1.14 level could offer a clear way to profit from this expected downturn. Selling out-of-the-money call options is another strategy to consider, capitalizing on the view that a significant rally is unlikely.\n\nWe are seeing a rush to exit the long euro positions that had built up over the past few months. This crowded trade is now unwinding, which could accelerate the pair’s decline as stop-loss orders are triggered. We saw a similar dynamic back in 2022 when the energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drove EUR\/USD below parity.\n\nThis energy shock creates a policy divergence between the central banks. The European Central Bank will find it difficult to maintain a hawkish stance as the economy slows under the weight of high energy prices. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has more flexibility, making the dollar a more attractive currency for yield-seeking investors.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Start trading now – Click here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rabobank cuts EUR\/USD short-term forecasts as Hormuz disruptions lift energy prices, expecting euro underperformance versus dollar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t