{"id":48858,"date":"2026-03-10T21:50:33","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T21:50:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/nomura-expects-the-ecb-to-keep-rates-unchanged-until-2026-if-energy-futures-return-pre-conflict-levels\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T21:50:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T21:50:33","slug":"nomura-expects-the-ecb-to-keep-rates-unchanged-until-2026-if-energy-futures-return-pre-conflict-levels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/live-updates\/nomura-expects-the-ecb-to-keep-rates-unchanged-until-2026-if-energy-futures-return-pre-conflict-levels\/","title":{"rendered":"Nomura expects the ECB to keep rates unchanged until 2026, if energy futures return pre-conflict levels"},"content":{"rendered":"Nomura\u2019s Global Markets Research Team expects the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged through 2026, based on an assumption that Brent crude oil and Dutch TTF natural gas futures fall back towards pre-conflict levels. Under this scenario, the effect on the real economy is expected to be limited.\n\nFinancial markets price about 25bp of ECB rate rises by December 2026 and about 33bp by December 2027. This pricing is linked to an upward shift in Brent and Dutch TTF futures curves and an expected rise in HICP inflation.\n\n

Energy Futures And Policy Implications<\/h3>\nNomura says that if futures curves at their recent peak are realised by the ECB\u2019s June meeting, the ECB would need to raise rates twice this year, with a first rise possible in June. If energy prices instead stabilise around their recent peak by June, this could add more to HICP inflation forecasts because crude oil and natural gas futures curves slope downwards.\n\nIn that stabilisation case, Nomura indicates an extra rate rise may be required. The article notes it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.\n\nLast year, we considered the view that the European Central Bank would hold rates, assuming energy prices would return to pre-conflict levels. While Brent crude has fallen from its 2025 highs of over $110, it remains elevated today at around $88 per barrel. Similarly, Dutch TTF natural gas is trading near \u20ac45\/MWh, well below its peak but far from the sub-\u20ac20 levels seen years ago.\n\nThese persistent energy costs are a key reason Eurozone HICP inflation is proving sticky, with the latest figures showing it at 2.8%, still well above the ECB’s 2% target. This situation validates the concerns from last year that a failure of energy prices to fully normalize would test the central bank’s resolve. The ECB is now caught between supporting a fragile economy and fighting this persistent inflation.\n\nFor traders, this creates a clear opportunity in interest rate volatility over the coming weeks. With the market currently pricing in about 20 basis points of hikes by year-end, there is a significant discrepancy between a potential hold and the one or two hikes that a new energy spike could force. We believe long volatility positions, such as buying straddles on EURIBOR futures, are attractive as they will profit whether the ECB holds firm or is forced to hike.\n\n

Usd Eur Options Strategy<\/h3>\nThis uncertainty also extends directly to the currency markets, creating opportunities in EUR\/USD options. Any hawkish surprise from an ECB official in the coming weeks could cause a sharp rally in the Euro. Therefore, positioning through cheap, out-of-the-money call options on the Euro could provide a valuable, asymmetric bet on the central bank being forced to act sooner than expected.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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Nomura expects ECB rates steady through 2026, but sustained higher energy prices could force multiple hikes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t