{"id":47950,"date":"2025-11-24T07:22:08","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T07:22:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=32890"},"modified":"2025-11-24T07:22:08","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T07:22:08","slug":"us-ppi-and-preliminary-gdp-take-centre-stage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/week_ahead\/us-ppi-and-preliminary-gdp-take-centre-stage\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: US PPI And Preliminary GDP Take Centre Stage"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>After months of &#8216;higher for longer&#8217; messaging, the latest labour figures point to a cooling yet still resilient jobs market. The delayed September non-farm payrolls report showed 119,000 jobs created, although the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, its highest level in four years. Revisions to the July and August readings suggested the broader trend is slowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&#39;A very close call&#39;: Economists say long-awaited September jobs report complicates Fed rate cut path <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FCNjNRBKnN\">https:\/\/t.co\/FCNjNRBKnN<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1992625695864873171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 23, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The mixed outcome leaves the Federal Reserve treading a fine line: robust hiring in sectors such as healthcare and education sits alongside rising continuing claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This divergence is reinforcing the view that inflation is easing more quickly than employment conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\">Traders Position For A December Cut<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">FedWatch<\/a> probabilities shifted dramatically last week. Markets now price in a 71% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the 10 December FOMC meeting, up from just 39% the previous day. Looking ahead to January 2026, traders assign a 58% probability to an additional 25-bp cut, signalling growing confidence that the easing cycle will soon begin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lower bond yields have lifted equities and pressured the US dollar. The two-year Treasury yield fell towards 3.5%, while AI and technology stocks spearheaded the rally. Selling pressure in Bitcoin and Ethereum has also eased, mirroring the broader, mild \u201crisk-on\u201d shift fuelled by softer yields and rising expectations of a December rate cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\">Risk Appetite Returns<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 bounced back after two consecutive weeks of declines, supported by dovish rate expectations and strong corporate earnings. More than 80% of the index\u2019s constituents surpassed profit estimates, with technology and healthcare leading the outperformance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Dow, S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq futures leap, sparking hopes of rebound from November losses<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FD0h7ZyKDW\">https:\/\/t.co\/FD0h7ZyKDW<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1992776098330153389?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 24, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Elsewhere, crude oil steadied after rebounding from the $57.60 support level, while gold remained firm near $4,000, buoyed by a softer US dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\">Market Movements Of The Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold (XAUUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/11\/xauusd-24-nov.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-32892\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>&#8211; Gold bounced from $4,020, continuing its range between $3,940 and $4,075.<br>&#8211; Softer yields and rising cut odds underpin support near $4,000.<br>&#8211; A break below $3,940 could expose $3,900, while resistance remains at $4,075.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 (SP500)<\/h3>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/11\/sp500-24-nov.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-32893\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>&#8211; Index rebounded as rate-cut optimism drove tech stocks higher.<br>&#8211; Traders watch 6,760 resistance for directional bias amid easing yields.<br>&#8211; Sustained buying above 6,700 could open the door to a year-end rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USD Index (USDX)<\/h3>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/11\/usdx-24-nov.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-32894\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>&#8211; USDX eased from its peak, testing the 99.65 zone for support.<br>&#8211; A bullish reversal could follow if the Fed tempers dovish expectations.<br>&#8211; Further downside to 99.45 remains possible if PCE cools sharply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin (BTCUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/11\/btc-24-nov.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-32895\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>&#8211; BTC tested $81,700, slipping amid risk rotation.<br>&#8211; Consolidation patterns suggest potential continuation of short-term weakness.<br>&#8211; Traders eye support near $80,000, with resistance around $84,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US Oil (USOIL)<\/h3>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/11\/usoil-24-nov.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-32896\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>&#8211; Crude rebounded from $57.60 toward $59.80, aided by improving sentiment.<br>&#8211; Resistance sits at $61.05, with potential pullback zones near $59.05.<br>&#8211; Market focus shifts to OPEC+ signals and global demand data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\">Key Events This Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">25 November<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. US PPI m\/m, Forecast: -0.10%, Previous: -0.10%<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Soft data could weigh on USD sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">26 November<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. NZ Official Cash Rate, Forecast: 2.25%, Previous: 2.50%<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>RBNZ expected to maintain cautious tone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. US Core PCE Price Index m\/m, Forecast: 0.20%, Previous: 0.20%<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Inflation gauge to steer FOMC expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. US Prelim GDP q\/q, Forecast: 2.50%, Previous: 2.90%<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Focus on growth momentum before FOMC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">28 November<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. CA GDP m\/m, Forecast: 0.20%, Previous: -0.30%<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Growth rebound may strengthen CAD ahead of December data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\">Market Snapshot<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest upswing across global markets is being driven less by new economic data and more by a shift in the Federal Reserve\u2019s tone. Comments from John Williams suggesting that policy is only \u201cmodestly restrictive\u201d have reopened the door to near-term easing, reigniting risk appetite across equities, gold, and cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the odds of a December rate cut now at 71%, traders have begun repricing the policy trajectory into early 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the moment, the economic picture remains mixed. The US jobs market continues to create employment, yet the jobless rate has risen to 4.4% and unemployment claims have reached their highest since 2021. Inflation risks appear to be retreating faster than economic activity, giving the Fed room to edge towards a more neutral policy stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A December rate cut would simply confirm what markets have already priced in, though a pause accompanied by dovish language could still help sustain the improved risk sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/trade-now\/?utm_source=org&amp;utm_medium=analysis&amp;utm_campaign=ppi_24_nov&amp;utm_content=eng&amp;retailleadsource=organic_na_na\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> <\/strong>and <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarketsmy.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading now.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After months of &#8216;higher for longer&#8217; messaging, the latest labour figures point to a cooling yet still resilient jobs market. The delayed September non-farm payrolls report showed 119,000 jobs created, although the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, its highest level in four years. Revisions to the July and August readings suggested the broader trend is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/week_ahead\/us-ppi-and-preliminary-gdp-take-centre-stage\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":48073,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/92"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47950"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47950\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}