{"id":46580,"date":"2026-05-07T07:08:45","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T07:08:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/dollar-steadies-as-iran-deal-hopes-fade\/"},"modified":"2026-05-07T07:08:45","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T07:08:45","slug":"dollar-steadies-as-iran-deal-hopes-fade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-steadies-as-iran-deal-hopes-fade\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Steadies as Iran Deal Hopes Fade"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/05\/1-1_USD4-1-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-47235\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDX traded at 97.866, down 0.003, or 0.00%, after reaching a session high of 97.911.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The USDX dollar index traded steady near 98.017 after touching a two-month low of 97.625 on Wednesday.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The US and Iran are working on a 14-point memorandum of understanding that could set up a month-long period of peace talks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dollar pressure eased after President Donald Trump said the US had held \u201cgood talks\u201d with Iran, but unresolved issues still keep safe-haven demand alive.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar steadied on Thursday after slipping to a two-month low on Wednesday, as traders weighed fresh hopes for a US-Iran peace deal against the risk that talks could still fail. The USDX dollar index traded steady near 98.017 after reaching 97.625 when reports suggested a deal was within reach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart shows USDX at 97.866, down 0.003, or 0.00%, at 05\/07 09:57:39 GMT+3. The session high sits at 97.911, with a low at 97.744, an open at 97.884, and a close at 97.869.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar\u2019s pause makes sense. Peace hopes can weaken the dollar by reducing safe-haven demand and lowering oil-linked inflation pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Washington\u2019s spending spree endangers the global status of the dollar as a reliable safe haven, according to Eurizon SLJ Capital\u2019s Stephen Jen <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zBTb7tTAHo\">https:\/\/t.co\/zBTb7tTAHo<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2051740524088811967?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet traders are not ready to abandon the greenback fully while the final terms remain unsettled and Trump continues to warn that military action could resume if Iran fails to reach an agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Iran Talks Keep The Dollar In A Tight Range<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The US and Iran are working with mediators on a 14-point memorandum of understanding that would set out a framework for a month-long period of peace talks. The draft framework is aimed at ending hostilities and opening a path toward broader nuclear negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">It\u2019s not just Big Oil. Wind giants welcome profit beats as Iran war spurs energy pivot <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CaFtKSr7oR\">https:\/\/t.co\/CaFtKSr7oR<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBC\/status\/2052255699023847535?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 7, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump said on Wednesday that the US had held \u201cgood talks\u201d with Iranian negotiators and that Iran had agreed not to have a nuclear weapon. Even so, key issues remain unresolved. Trump also threatened to resume military action if Iran fails to reach an agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That leaves the dollar in a two-way trade. A signed framework could pull USDX lower as oil falls, risk appetite improves, and traders reprice future Fed easing. A breakdown in talks could push the dollar higher as traders move back into defensive assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed Pricing Still Matters For USDX<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar is no longer moving only on Federal Reserve expectations. The Iran war, oil prices, and the Strait of Hormuz now sit at the centre of the macro trade. Still, Fed pricing remains important because lower oil and lower inflation risk could revive rate-cut expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Fed officials say rising supply chain risks fuel concern of more persistent inflation <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EtDHw13iVO\">https:\/\/t.co\/EtDHw13iVO<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EtDHw13iVO\">https:\/\/t.co\/EtDHw13iVO<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/2052219380356817120?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 7, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If peace talks make progress, traders may rebuild expectations for future easing. That would likely weigh on the dollar. If talks stall and oil rebounds, markets may keep the Fed on a firmer path for longer, which would support USDX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is why the dollar did not collapse after touching 97.625. Traders need more than hopeful headlines. They need proof that the peace framework can lower energy risk and keep inflation pressure contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>USDX is trading near <strong>97.87<\/strong>, remaining under pressure after failing to reclaim the <strong>99.40\u2013100.00 region<\/strong>, with price continuing to drift lower within a broader corrective structure. The dollar index has gradually weakened since peaking near <strong>100.48<\/strong> in late March, as rallies continue to face selling pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From a technical standpoint, momentum remains <strong>bearish to neutral<\/strong>. Price is trading below the <strong>5-day (98.07)<\/strong> and <strong>10-day (98.22)<\/strong> moving averages, both of which are turning lower and acting as immediate resistance. The <strong>20-day (98.18)<\/strong> is also sitting above current price, reinforcing the downside bias and signalling that buyers are struggling to regain momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/05\/image-10-1024x473.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-49711\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Key levels to watch:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Support:<\/strong> 97.74 \u2192 96.40 \u2192 95.34<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Resistance:<\/strong> 98.07 \u2192 98.22 \u2192 99.40<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Price is now hovering just above the <strong>97.74 support zone<\/strong>, which has become the immediate line of defence for buyers. A break below this level could expose <strong>96.40<\/strong>, with further downside risk toward the <strong>95.34 low<\/strong> if bearish momentum accelerates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the upside, <strong>98.07 <\/strong><strong>is acting<\/strong><strong> as the first resistance level<\/strong>, aligning with the short-term moving averages. A sustained move back above <strong>98.20<\/strong> would be needed to stabilise the structure, while a broader bullish reversal would likely require a reclaim of the <strong>99.40 zone<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, USDX remains in a <strong>soft corrective downtrend<\/strong>, with price trapped below key moving averages and struggling to build upside momentum. The market remains vulnerable to further downside while trading below the <strong>98.20 resistance area<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Implications<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/learn\/is-the-u-s-dollar-collapsing-the-reality-of-dedollarisation-in-2026\/?utmsource=DMA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">weaker dollar<\/a> would support commodities, emerging-market currencies, and risk assets. Gold could regain support if USDX breaks lower and traders price more Fed easing. Copper and other growth-linked metals may also benefit if peace hopes improve global demand sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A firmer dollar would send the opposite signal. If Iran talks fail or oil rebounds, USDX could retest the 98.185 to 98.224 moving-average zone, while commodities and risk currencies may lose momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The cautious forecast favours a soft but range-bound dollar while USDX holds below 98.224. A break below 97.744 would support a deeper move toward 96.414. A close above 98.224 would show that peace optimism is fading and that traders are rebuilding defensive dollar exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Indices<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">VT Markets<\/a> today.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Trader Questions<\/strong><\/summary>\n<p><strong>Why Is The Dollar Index Steady Near 98?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dollar Index is steady near 98 because traders are balancing US-Iran peace hopes against the risk that talks could still fail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>USDX traded at 97.866, down 0.003, or 0.00%. The DXY dollar index traded near 98.017 after reaching a two-month low of 97.625 on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What Is Driving The US Dollar Today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US dollar is being driven by uncertainty around US-Iran peace talks, safe-haven demand, oil prices, and Federal Reserve rate expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Peace hopes have reduced some demand for the dollar, but unresolved issues in the Iran talks are keeping traders cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why Did The Dollar Fall To A Two-Month Low?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar fell to a two-month low after reports suggested a US-Iran peace deal was within reach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The DXY dollar index touched 97.625 on Wednesday after Axios reported progress toward a peace agreement. The move showed that traders were pricing lower geopolitical risk, lower oil pressure, and a possible return of Fed rate-cut expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What Is The US-Iran 14-Point Memorandum?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US-Iran 14-point memorandum is a proposed framework for a month-long period of peace talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Wall Street Journal reported that the US and Iran are working with mediators on the document. It would aim to create a path toward de-escalation, though key issues remain unresolved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>How Are US-Iran Peace Talks Affecting The Dollar?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US-Iran peace talks are affecting the dollar by changing demand for safe-haven assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If talks progress, the dollar could weaken as risk appetite improves and oil prices fall. If talks fail, traders may return to the dollar for safety, especially if military action resumes.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USDX steadies near 98 as Iran peace talks, Fed policy, and risk appetite shape dollar direction.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":46577,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46580\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46577"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}