EUR\/USD traded flat near 1.1745 in the European session on Wednesday. The pair moved sideways as the US Dollar eased.<\/p>\n
The US Dollar Index (DXY) was slightly lower near 98.30. Demand for the Dollar as a safe haven softened after news on US-Iran relations.<\/p>\n
Late Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was extended for an indefinite period. He wrote on Truth Social that the military would hold attacks on Iran until Washington receives a unified proposal.<\/p>\n
The next key event for the Euro is the European Central Bank policy decision on 30 April. Markets are watching for guidance on rates and outlook.<\/p>\n
Technically, EUR\/USD kept an upward bias while holding above the 20-period EMA at 1.1694. It also sat at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1745.<\/p>\n
The 14-period RSI was around 57. This points to positive momentum without being overbought.<\/p>\n
Resistance levels were seen near 1.1825 (61.8% retracement) and 1.1938 (78.6% retracement). The cycle high at 1.2082 was a further level above.<\/p>\n
Support was seen at 1.1694, then 1.1666 (38.2% retracement). Lower levels included 1.1567 and 1.1408.<\/p>\n
The technical section was produced with help from an AI tool.<\/p>\n
Looking back to this time in 2025, we saw the EUR\/USD pair holding a bullish bias around 1.1745. The market was focused on a de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, which was weakening the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. The technical picture then was quite constructive, with momentum favoring further upside ahead of a key ECB meeting.<\/p>\n
The situation today, in April 2026, is fundamentally different as we trade near 1.0950. The primary driver is now central bank divergence, with the Federal Reserve signaling a pause while the ECB maintains a hawkish stance due to stubborn core inflation, which has remained above 3% for the first quarter. This policy conflict has replaced the geopolitical focus of last year and has capped the pair’s recovery attempts.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this has pushed 3-month implied volatility in EUR\/USD options up to 8.2%, a notable increase from the calmer levels we observed in early 2025. This higher volatility means option premiums are more expensive, but it also creates opportunities for those expecting a significant move. The market is pricing in more uncertainty now than it was a year ago.<\/p>\n
Given the ECB’s firm position, traders could consider buying EUR\/USD call spreads to position for a potential break above the 1.1000 resistance level. For instance, purchasing a May 1.1000 call while selling a 1.1150 call could offer a cost-effective way to capture upside from a hawkish surprise. This defined-risk strategy benefits from the current upward pressure driven by interest rate differentials.<\/p>\n
Conversely, hedging against a reversal is also prudent, as US economic data could easily shift the Fed\u2019s neutral stance. Buying out-of-the-money put options with a strike near 1.0800 can provide cheap insurance against a sudden dollar rally. This is especially relevant with the upcoming US PCE inflation report, which has historically triggered sharp market reactions.<\/p>\n
The broader technical structure is far less bullish than it was back in 2025 when the pair was above key moving averages. We are now contending with significant long-term resistance, suggesting that strategies that profit from a range, like a short iron condor, might be suitable if central banks begin to align their messaging. Any breakout from the current 1.0800-1.1050 range will likely be sharp.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD holds near 1.1745 as dollar softens; traders eye ECB decision; bullish bias above key support.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t