{"id":45151,"date":"2026-02-23T13:02:28","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T05:02:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=42511"},"modified":"2026-02-23T13:02:28","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T05:02:28","slug":"week-ahead-fed-rate-cut-expectations-shift-after-us-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-fed-rate-cut-expectations-shift-after-us-cpi\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: Fed Rate Cut Expectations Shift After US CPI"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/Image_fx-2026-02-23T124501790-1024x559.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-42517\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>XAUUSD, BTCUSD, USDX and SP500 enter the week driven by Fed rate cut expectations after a softer US CPI print and a mixed Jobs report.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline CPI cooled to 2.4% year on year, while job gains came in at 130,000 with heavy downward revisions to prior data. Markets now price the first Fed rate cut around June.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If inflation continues to cool, XAUUSD could extend gains. If data reaccelerates, USDX may squeeze higher and pressure both gold and crypto.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US CPI and Fed Rate Cut Expectations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The macro backdrop for the markets this week is a tug-of-war between softer headline inflation and sticky core inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>January US CPI slowed to 2.4% year on year, undershooting the 2.5% forecast and stepping down from 2.7% in December. Energy helped, with weaker gasoline prices pulling the headline index lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under the surface, the story is less comfortable. The Fed&#8217;s preferred PCE gauge for December still sits at 2.9% year on year, with core PCE running at 3.0%. Services and essential costs remain elevated, which keeps policymakers wary of cutting too quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Labour data sends a similar mixed message. January Non-Farm Payrolls came in at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-02-11\/us-payrolls-rise-130-000-unemployment-rate-unexpectedly-falls\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">130,000 versus expectations<\/a> around 70,000, and well above the revised 48,000 in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, earlier benchmark revisions revealed that employment levels through 2025 were overstated, which fits with VT Markets research on the quiet weakening in the jobs market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fed minutes and <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hHZHw3XBKV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">recent commentary<\/a> reinforce a cautious stance. Officials describe progress toward the 2% target as uneven and stress that rate cuts will depend on, while some still float the risk of further hikes if inflation stalls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The US Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trump&#39;s global tariff policy may, at best, bring a &#39;slow, gradual&#39; decline to US consumer prices, if it occurs at all, said Anna Rathbun, founder and CEO of Grenadilla Advisory <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GUnhREnhqs\">pic.twitter.com\/GUnhREnhqs<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/2024982396043505867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 20, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Fed funds futures and FedWatch tools now price a high chance of steady rates through the March meeting, with the market leaning toward the first cut around mid 2026 rather than early in the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Tariff Twist<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A major shift arrived after the US Supreme Court ruled that only Congress, not the President, can impose global tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">With its rejection Friday of Trump\u2019s claim of unbridled power to impose and remove tariffs, the court reasserted itself as a constitutional guardrail and laid out fresh limits on presidential authority <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dwlIoFoIiQ\">https:\/\/t.co\/dwlIoFoIiQ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2025266378991689831?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 21, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The decision wipes out a major executive power tool and may trigger roughly 160 billion dollars in refunds to importers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For markets, this creates two effects:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>USDX impact<\/strong>: A reversal of tariff inflows can weigh on the dollar if importers unwind prior hedges.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>SP500 effect<\/strong>: Lower effective import costs can cushion corporate margins and improve forward expectations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the White House is already exploring a 150-day Emergency Surcharge as a stopgap measure. Traders will watch whether the plan survives legal challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rising US\u2013Iran Tensions and the Geneva Deadline<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Washington issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding acceptance of a revised framework ahead of Thursday\u2019s meeting in Geneva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he\u2019s likely to meet US special envoy Steve Witkoff Thursday in Geneva, seeking a diplomatic resolution for the latest standoff over Tehran\u2019s nuclear program. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3DlCFu6A3c\">https:\/\/t.co\/3DlCFu6A3c<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2025626799728665068?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 22, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The US has positioned carriers in the region, and while Iran states there will be no surrender, talks have not collapsed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This matters directly for XAUUSD and oil:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Higher geopolitical risk feeds haven demand and supports XAUUSD above 5,000.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If talks break down, traders may price a spike in crude and bid USDX temporarily.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Upcoming Events<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Date<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Currency<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Event<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Forecast<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Previous<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Analyst Remarks<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>26 Feb 2026<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>US-Iran Talks Geneva<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>Expect gold and oil volatility<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>27 Feb 2026<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>PPI m\/m<\/td><td>0.30%<\/td><td>0.50%<\/td><td>Direct input for Fed rate cut expectations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>03 Mar 2026<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>JOLTS Job Openings<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>Labour demand check after revisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>06 Mar 2026<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Non-Farm Employment Change<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>130K<\/td><td>Payroll strength impacts USDX and SP500<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>For full view of upcoming economic events, check out VT Markets\u2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/economic-calendar\/?utmsource=WMO\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Economic Calendar<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Symbols to Watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold (XAUUSD) | USDX | Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | S&amp;P500 | Oil (CL-OIL)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Chart Movements of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold (XAUUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1439\" height=\"792\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/6d463c3e-b27f-413d-a9f1-b19c627834af.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-42519\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>XAUUSD climbed to around $5,170 in early Asian trading on Monday, approaching 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 5164.35.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>5164.35 remains key rejection zone, with 4981.20 acting as 50% support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Catalyst: Fed rate cut expectations and upcoming US inflation data.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin (BTCUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1243\" height=\"742\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/23af25bf-cbfb-4018-9862-70231e80cce4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-42521\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BTCUSD rejected $65,000 and stabilised near $62,000.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>$59,500 support critical for structure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Catalyst: US inflation and SP500 reaction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US Dollar Index (USDX)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1235\" height=\"744\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/6e307455-7f8c-4b1e-a4a3-db4497aedf3f.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-42518\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDX testing 98.10 resistance zone.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>98.65 breakout shifts momentum bullish.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Catalyst: Fed rate cut expectations and PPI.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SP500<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1439\" height=\"767\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/8a8e3b41-cbe5-42bc-8c1e-a98430a522fd.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-42520\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>SP500 is trading around 6,912, which aligns exactly with the 38.2% retracement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Immediate resistance sits at 6,944 at the 23.6% retracement, where sellers may react.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Deeper support sits at 6,860, which is the 61.8% retracement zone.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold enters the new week pressing into the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 5164.35, with XAUUSD trading just beneath that key ceiling. The next directional move will likely hinge on Fed rate cut expectations and incoming US inflation data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With US PPI and follow-up labour data ahead, markets are recalibrating the timing of the first Fed rate cut. If inflation continues to cool, XAUUSD could extend its recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If price pressures reaccelerate, the dollar may strengthen and cap gold\u2019s upside. The coming week will revolve around whether rate cut expectations gain conviction or face another reset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Create a live <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/?utmsource=WMO\">VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> today to access our platform features, including market insights and educational content.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed rate cut expectations remain the dominant driver for XAUUSD as traders digest US CPI, the latest Jobs report, and shifting positioning across BTCUSD, USDX and SP500. Here is what to watch this week. \u2013 vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":42517,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[32],"class_list":["post-45151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead","tag-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45151","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45151"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45151\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/42517"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}