{"id":44631,"date":"2025-12-24T10:57:52","date_gmt":"2025-12-24T02:57:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=37623"},"modified":"2025-12-24T10:57:52","modified_gmt":"2025-12-24T02:57:52","slug":"dollar-weakens-as-rate-cut-expectations-deepen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-weakens-as-rate-cut-expectations-deepen\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Weakens as Rate Cut Expectations Deepen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-25T110734.903-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19387\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The dollar index fell to 97.767 and is down 9.9% this year, its steepest drop since 2003.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets price roughly two more 25 bp Fed cuts in 2026, targeting a 3\u20133.25% policy rate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The US dollar remained under pressure on Wednesday, heading for its worst annual performance in more than two decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite a solid US GDP reading, the greenback failed to find support as traders stayed focused on the Federal Reserve\u2019s easing outlook rather than near-term growth resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The dollar is heading for its weakest annual performance in eight years, and the options market is signaling that traders are preparing for more downside <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/W0PT3e9bBB\">https:\/\/t.co\/W0PT3e9bBB<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2003409507905335345?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 23, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index slipped to a 2\u00bd-month low of 97.767. It is now on track to lose 9.9% in 2025, marking its sharpest annual decline since 2003.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Asian trade, the dollar stayed on the back foot, reflecting entrenched bearish positioning rather than a reaction to fresh data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Fed Outlook Tilts Dovish Despite Growth Resilience<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets continue to price in further policy easing from the Federal Reserve, with traders expecting roughly two more rate cuts in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The president has repeatedly said he\u2019s interested in breaking recent trends, where promising economic data is sometimes met by a market selloff due to concerns over inflation and corresponding hikes by the Fed. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NJGfjr6XFG\">https:\/\/t.co\/NJGfjr6XFG<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2003536692813201624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 23, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Goldman Sachs Chief US Economist David Mericle said the Federal Open Market Committee is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcminutes20250507.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">likely to compromise<\/a> on two additional 25-basis-point cuts, taking rates to 3\u20133.25%, while noting that risks remain tilted to the downside as inflation slows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The failure of strong GDP data to shift expectations highlights how firmly the market narrative has turned. Traders appear more focused on disinflation trends and liquidity conditions than on backwards-looking growth figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Confidence in US Assets Comes Under Scrutiny<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar\u2019s weakness this year has also reflected broader concerns about the stability of US assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A Supreme Court ruling that scraps Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs would create a major \u201cadministrative problem,\u201d the president\u2019s top economic adviser said Sunday. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sgYAqGgyNq\">https:\/\/t.co\/sgYAqGgyNq<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2002766577519755635?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 21, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff policies earlier in the year triggered volatility and dented confidence, while his growing influence over the Federal Reserve has raised questions about institutional independence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The US Dollar Index has extended its decline, falling to its lowest level since early October and threatening to break below key horizontal support at <strong>97.40<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This marks a significant reversal from the highs near <strong>100.40<\/strong> seen in late November, driven largely by shifting Fed rate expectations and market appetite for risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-34-1024x461.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-37624\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The moving averages (5, 10, 30) have begun to fan downward, with short-term MAs crossing below longer-term averages \u2014 a bearish signal that confirms trend weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD is firmly in negative territory, with widening distance below the signal line and growing red histogram bars, reinforcing the downward momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Near-Term Outlook for the Dollar<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar may remain under pressure as long as rate cut expectations dominate and confidence concerns linger. Thin year-end liquidity could exaggerate moves, especially if central banks outside the US maintain firmer policy stances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any recovery in the dollar would likely require a clear shift in Fed communication or a sustained rebound in inflation data, neither of which markets currently expect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Indices<\/a> on VT Markets <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/Insights\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US dollar heads for its worst year since 2003 as Fed cut bets grow and peers hold or lean hawkish. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":19387,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,11],"class_list":["post-44631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-indices"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44631","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44631"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44631\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19387"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}