US index futures held yesterday\u2019s rebound during London hours on 25 February 2026, but the setup differed across contracts. S&P 500 futures were strongest, Dow futures stayed firm, and Nasdaq futures improved but remained below a resistance band that has capped upside since 17 February.<\/p>\n
Dow futures (YM) traded at 49,290, above the central pivot (48,852) and POC (49,230), with the upper gate at 49,208\u201349,428 and upper range at 50,360. Levels noted were 49,124, 49,072, 49,030, 48,988, and 48,936, with lower gate at 48,496\u201348,276 and lower range at 47,344; delta was neutral.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 futures (ES) traded at 6,912, above the aligned intraday and daily central pivot at 6,866.50 and above the POC at 6,905, with the upper gate at 6,893\u20136,909. Upside references were 6,923, 6,936, 6,952, and 6,979.50, while lower gate sat at 6,842\u20136,827 and lower range at 6,764.00; delta was positive.<\/p>\n
Nasdaq futures (NQ\/MNQ) traded at 25,076, above the central pivot (25,051) and POC (25,040) but below the upper gate at 25,134\u201325,186. Further levels were 25,228, 25,269, 25,321, and 25,405, with lower gate at 24,978\u201324,934 and lower range at 24,744; delta was positive.<\/p>\n
Based on the current market setup, we see an uneven recovery that presents specific opportunities and risks for the coming weeks. The S&P 500 is showing clear strength by trading above its key 6,909 resistance level, while the Nasdaq remains the laggard, struggling below its own critical resistance near 25,186. This divergence is the most important factor for traders to watch right now.<\/p>\n
This split performance makes sense when we look at the broader economic picture. The most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released last week, showed inflation holding stubbornly at 3.4% year-over-year, which was higher than analysts had hoped. This persistent inflation is why the interest-rate-sensitive Nasdaq is lagging, as it dampens expectations for any near-term rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n
Looking back at a similar period in the third quarter of 2025, we saw a comparable divergence where the Nasdaq underperformed for several weeks due to inflation fears before eventually catching up. This suggests that the current weakness in tech could resolve, but it requires a catalyst. Until the Nasdaq can firmly break and hold above its 25,186 upper gate, we should expect this rotational and choppy trading environment to continue.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this suggests a relative value strategy could be effective over the next one to two weeks. A pair trade, going long S&P 500 futures (ES) while simultaneously going short Nasdaq futures (NQ), would profit if this current divergence persists. This is not a bet on the market’s overall direction, but rather on the continued outperformance of the broader market over the tech sector.<\/p>\n
Options traders might consider strategies that capitalize on this defined technical picture. For the S&P 500, buying call spreads targeting the 6,979 upper range offers a risk-defined way to bet on continued strength. Conversely, for the Nasdaq, buying puts or put spreads with a strike below the 25,051 pivot point could serve as a good hedge against another rejection from its overhead resistance.<\/p>\n
The most critical signal to watch for will be how the Nasdaq behaves at its 25,134 \u2013 25,186 resistance zone during the New York session. If we see a decisive break and acceptance above that level, it would likely signal that the entire market is ready to move higher in unison. If it fails there again, we should anticipate the S&P 500’s upward momentum will stall as well.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" US futures held rebound in London; S&P led, Dow firm, Nasdaq lagged below resistance despite positives.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16994,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43616","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43616","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43616"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43616\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16994"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43616"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43616"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43616"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}