ICE Brent settled a little more than 1% lower as reports pointed to Iran being ready to reach a deal soon, ahead of further US\u2013Iran talks on Thursday. At the same time, the US has continued building military assets in the Middle East, and President Trump set a 10-to-15-day deadline that falls in very early March.<\/p>\n
The market has kept a risk premium due to uncertainty around whether a deal is reached and the risk of military action if it is not. Prices remain sensitive to new developments linked to the talks and regional security.<\/p>\n
US inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute showed US crude oil stocks rose by 11.4m barrels over the week. This compared with market expectations for a 1.9m barrel increase.<\/p>\n
The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for 1 March, with supply increases expected to resume from April. This comes even though the oil balance sheet indicates the market does not need extra supply.<\/p>\n
With Brent crude fluctuating near $82 a barrel, we are seeing the market remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines coming out of the Middle East. The push and pull between supply concerns and diplomatic chatter is creating significant uncertainty for the weeks ahead. Traders should note the sharp price movements following any new developments.<\/p>\n
This environment feels familiar, reminding us of similar tensions we saw back in 2025 regarding the US and Iran. We watched then as the market priced in a substantial risk premium ahead of diplomatic deadlines, only for it to evaporate quickly on positive news. The probability of military action was a constant focus, much like the shipping disruptions we monitor in the Red Sea today.<\/p>\n
Given these conflicting signals, derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from this elevated volatility. The market is caught between a potential supply-driven drop and a geopolitically driven spike, making directional bets risky. Options strategies like long straddles or strangles could perform well regardless of which way the market breaks in early March.<\/p>\n
On the bearish side, recent inventory data provides a strong counterargument to higher prices. The latest EIA report showed a surprise build in US crude stocks of 4.2 million barrels, far exceeding analyst expectations of a minor draw. This suggests underlying demand may not be as robust as prices indicate, a situation we also saw with large API builds last year.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, we must watch the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for March 4th. With prices holding above $80, there is a growing consensus the group will be reluctant to deepen production cuts and may signal a return of barrels to the market starting in the second quarter. This would place a considerable ceiling on any rally that isn’t driven by a major supply disruption.<\/p>\n
Therefore, traders could use options to define their risk clearly in the coming weeks. Buying puts can offer protection if the geopolitical risk premium suddenly disappears following a diplomatic breakthrough. Conversely, holding long call positions provides exposure to a sharp upward move should tensions escalate into a direct conflict.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Brent slid over 1% on Iran deal hopes; US stockpiles surged; OPEC+ supply hikes loom.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43591"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43591\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}